Comprehensive Analysis: Trump Administration's Multi-Faceted Pressure Campaign Against Venezuela Explained

Washington:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are scheduled to conduct classified briefings for all U.S. senators and representatives on Tuesday regarding the Trump administration's Venezuela strategy.

President Donald Trump's intentions remain ambiguous to many lawmakers, despite 3-1/2 months of engagement, more than 20 lethal U.S. strikes on vessels near the South American nation, and a substantial military buildup in the Caribbean region.

Below is an examination of the various factors apparently driving this pressure campaign.

The Trump administration officially notified Congress in October that the U.S. is engaged in "armed conflict" with drug cartels, asserting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro plays a significant role in the distribution of illegal narcotics responsible for American deaths—allegations Maduro denies.

Additionally, the administration has designated Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan prison-originated gang, and Cartel de los Soles, a loosely defined term from the 1990s referring to Venezuelan officials with alleged narcotics connections, as foreign terrorist organizations.

During Trump's first presidential term, the U.S. Justice Department indicted Maduro himself on narcoterrorism charges in 2020.

According to U.S. intelligence, Venezuela serves as a transit country for cocaine destined for European and American markets and provides sanctuary for drug trafficking criminal groups, though it is not a source of fentanyl, the substance linked to most overdose deaths in the United States.

This month, Trump unveiled his National Security Strategy, advocating for the revival of the 19th century Monroe Doctrine, which declared the Western Hemisphere to be within Washington's sphere of influence.

The strategy positions the hemisphere at the forefront of Trump's foreign policy priorities and suggests U.S. influence as a mechanism to deny Beijing access to resources such as military installations and critical minerals.

Facing stringent U.S. sanctions, Maduro's government has established energy and mining agreements with China, as well as with Iran and Russia.

A successful pressure campaign resulting in a more U.S.-friendly government would effectively strengthen American regional influence.

Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Maria Corina Machado expressed on Sunday that she "absolutely" endorses Trump's strategy. Machado stated that Trump has finally prioritized Venezuela appropriately as a U.S. national security concern.

"We have been requesting this for years, so it's finally happening," she remarked during an appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation" television program.

Maduro has claimed that Washington covets Venezuela's oil, which is currently sold predominantly to China. Venezuela possesses the world's largest confirmed oil reserves, and analysts suggest that access to oil could provide Maduro with valuable leverage in negotiations with Trump, a known advocate for the fossil-fuel industry.

Several Western companies, including U.S.-based Chevron operating under a special license, maintain operations in Venezuela. However, the country's petroleum industry has deteriorated, with production levels low relative to its reserve size. Years of sanctions have also prevented Venezuela from attracting investment and obtaining necessary equipment and components.

Analysts indicate that while Venezuela's oil reserves would interest Trump, the broader concern involves a hemispheric nation with significant oil and other resources maintaining close alliances with U.S. competitors such as China and Russia.

"The concept of having this country, with oil, minerals, and rare earths in our hemisphere, whose primary allies are China and Russia, simply doesn't align with Trump's worldview," explained David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University.

Many close Trump political allies, including his Cuban-American Secretary of State, Rubio, have consistently advocated for stringent measures against Cuba's Communist government. They view Maduro's administration and its oil as crucial support for Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other Havana leadership, hoping that governmental change in Venezuela would weaken Cuba's position.

The Trump administration has been working to terminate the legal status of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants in the United States, implementing the "mass deportations now" policy that contributed to his successful reelection campaign last year.

According to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the Venezuelan population in the United States grew by nearly 600% from 2000 to 2021, increasing from 95,000 to 640,000, as the South American country experienced political and economic upheaval.

Resolving instability in their homeland would reduce Venezuelans' motivation to seek new lives in the United States.