How Smaller Parties Shaped Bihar's Electoral Outcome: The Impact of Jan Suraaj, BSP, and AIMIM

The Bihar Assembly election results reveal a substantial victory for the NDA, with the ruling alliance securing 202 seats while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) obtained only 35 seats, creating a scenario reminiscent of the NDA's 2010 triumph but with notable new political dynamics.

In Patna, the outcome surprised both political blocs, with Congress General Secretary KC Venugopal expressing disbelief: "This result is unbelievable for all of us. Not just Congress, even the people of Bihar and our alliance partners are unable to believe it. A 90% strike rate for a party - this has never happened. We are doing a thorough analysis and collecting data from across Bihar."

Beyond the headline figures, smaller political entities played a crucial role in determining the electoral outcome through their impact on winning margins.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party made its electoral debut in this election. Despite failing to win any seats, the party captured 3.4% of total votes, establishing itself as a potential disruptor in Bihar's political landscape. The party contested 238 seats, finishing second in one, third in 129, fourth in 73, fifth in 24, and between sixth and ninth in 12 constituencies.

Jan Suraaj affected both major alliances significantly. In 33 constituencies, its vote share exceeded the margin of victory, with the NDA winning 18 of these seats and the MGB winning 13. This outcome validated Kishor's campaign assertion that his party would draw votes from both political blocs.

Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) contested 181 seats, winning one and finishing second in another. The INDIA bloc has long accused the BSP of functioning as BJP's 'B-team,' allegations that intensified following the UP Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

The Bihar results suggest the BSP damaged the Mahagathbandhan more than the NDA. In 20 constituencies, the BSP received more votes than the victory margin. The NDA won 18 of these seats while the MGB secured only two, indicating the BSP's presence benefited the NDA in 90% of these cases.

Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM performed impressively, winning five seats—matching its 2020 performance—and finishing second in one. The party also influenced results in nine constituencies where its vote count exceeded the victory margin. Of these influenced seats, 67% went to the NDA and 33% to the MGB.

For the Mahagathbandhan, particularly its main constituents RJD and Congress, this election represents one of their worst performances in Bihar's electoral history. The three-way contest clearly favored the NDA. Despite securing 23.4% of votes, the RJD won only 25 seats, while the BJP (20.4%) and JDU (19.6%) individually captured more than three times as many seats each. This pattern demonstrates the NDA's successful vote base consolidation while opposition votes fragmented.

Data analysis reveals that in 63 of 243 constituencies, Jan Suraaj, BSP, and AIMIM directly influenced outcomes as their combined vote share exceeded the victory margin. The NDA won 44 (approximately 70%) of these seats, while the MGB secured 19.

Traditionally, the Mahagathbandhan relies on a unified anti-NDA vote bank. However, this election witnessed a three-way split: the BSP attracted Dalit voters, AIMIM consolidated Muslim votes, and Jan Suraaj appealed to youth and development-oriented voters. This fragmentation of opposition votes helped the NDA transform close contests into decisive victories.