Prashant Kishor's Failed Bihar Prediction: Will the Political Strategist Keep His Promise to Quit?

Prashant Kishor has remained silent since the Bihar election results were announced.

New Delhi:

The first notable prediction occurred about Bengal five years ago.

"BJP will struggle to cross double digits and will get less than 100 seats in West Bengal. Will quit my work if they do," declared Prashant Kishor in December 2020.

His forecast proved accurate as BJP secured only 77 seats.

Fast forward to 2025, Kishor made another bold prediction during the Bihar election campaign.

"You can write this down. JDU, on its own strength, is going to get less than 25 seats. If this does not happen, I will quit politics. After the elections, the very existence of JDU will be in question," stated Kishor in June 2025.

This time, however, Kishor's prediction fell short while his own party made its electoral debut. Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) secured 85 seats, more than triple what Kishor had predicted.

Kishor first gained recognition as an election strategist after designing a campaign that helped Narendra Modi secure a record third term as Gujarat Chief Minister in 2012. He followed this success by orchestrating Modi's 2014 Lok Sabha victory, facilitating his transition from Gujarat to the national stage.

Since then, Kishor's reputation has generally flourished, despite occasional setbacks—most notably the Congress campaign he managed for the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections.

Throughout the Bihar campaign, Kishor repeatedly insisted, sometimes in writing, that JDU would not exceed 25 seats and that this election would mark Nitish Kumar's final political chapter.

"All of Bihar knows that Nitish Kumar's mental and physical condition is not such that he can get anything done. A person who is sitting on a stage and forgetting the name of the Prime Minister sitting next to him; who, when the national anthem is playing, doesn't know whether it's the national anthem or a 'qawwali'... who hasn't addressed the media in a year. A person who is not in a state to look after himself... how will he look after Bihar? So, if you and I know this, don't PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah?" Kishor remarked during one of his numerous June interviews with NDTV.

Another factor behind his confidence was a survey conducted by his party indicating that 62% of Bihar's population desired change.

Yet the election results revealed that voters preferred continuity, and with even greater conviction than before.

Where does this leave Prashant Kishor, whose own party performed poorly in the elections?

When asked about his party's potential performance, he typically responded with "arsh pe ya farsh pe" (either at the bottom or soaring high).

In another interview, he stated that even winning 125-130 seats would feel like a defeat to him, as he wouldn't be satisfied with a simple majority (the threshold being 122 seats).

He campaigned vigorously.

When questioned about the possibility of his party losing, Kishor assured that he would remain committed to Bihar. Referencing Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000-hour rule—that practice is essential to genius—he pledged to stay in Bihar for the next decade and give his all.

His comprehensive blueprint includes building schools, reducing migration, developing capacity, eliminating corruption, and introducing a new political approach, all of which he has detailed in his public statements.

The only complication is his promise to quit politics if his JD(U) seat prediction proved incorrect.

Which is precisely what happened.

Given his renowned political acumen, how will he navigate this situation?

Let's recall his Bengal prediction.

Even then, he had expressed his intention to quit, noting that politics wasn't something he wished to pursue "all my life."

"I have done my bit. I-PAC (the organisation he ran) has far more capable people than me, I should take a break and try my hand at something else," he had said.

As the 2021 Bengal results began emerging, early trends showed BJP leading in over 120 seats, which prompted mockery. However, as final numbers solidified, Kishor was vindicated.

He maintained that he had planned to quit regardless, but added, "am glad I am able to quit after the victory."

"You (media) were very apprehensive about what I had said. You did not believe me when I said I will quit if the BJP crosses 100 seats. Today, despite what I said is coming true, I have decided to quit," he stated then.

He faces a similar dilemma today.

"Revere Gandhi. Nonconformist. Egalitarian. Humanist. Believe in the Wisdom of Crowd," reads his X profile bio.

Kishor has not made any public statements since the Bihar election results were announced. We must wait to see his next move or, given his recent media presence, his next interview.