Latest Bihar Exit Poll Projects NDA Victory with Slim Majority: Complete Analysis

The majority threshold in the 243-member Bihar Assembly stands at 122 seats.

New Delhi:

A tenth exit poll for the Bihar Assembly elections has been released, joining others in forecasting a clear majority for the NDA alliance, albeit with the narrowest projected margin yet.

According to Vote Vibe, the NDA is expected to secure between 125 and 145 seats in the 243-member Assembly, where 122 seats constitute a majority. The Mahagathbandhan opposition alliance is projected to win between 95-115 constituencies. Consistent with other exit poll predictions, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is estimated to either fail to secure any seats or win a maximum of two.

Among the nine previous exit polls released on Tuesday, Chanakya Strategies predicted the lowest margin for the ruling alliance, suggesting they would likely win 130-138 seats. Two other polling agencies, People's Insight and People's Pulse, set their lower projection at 133 seats, while Matrize offered the most optimistic forecast for the NDA, predicting between 147 and 167 seats—potentially exceeding the two-thirds majority threshold.

NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls, which aggregates multiple surveys, indicates the NDA is positioned to win approximately 146 constituencies, with the Mahagathbandhan likely limited to 91 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is expected to barely register, possibly securing just one seat.

Important caveat: Exit polls frequently prove inaccurate in their predictions.

Should these projections materialize on Friday, it would represent the fourth significant victory for the BJP and the NDA coalition since their unexpectedly modest performance in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP successfully maintained its government in Haryana, decisively defeated the AAP in Delhi, and the NDA retained power in Maharashtra.

The Maharashtra and Haryana elections were considered challenging contests for the BJP and NDA, as was Bihar, particularly given that JDU chief Nitish Kumar has served as the state's chief minister for two decades, excluding a brief nine-month interruption.

Kumar and the NDA were therefore anticipated to face anti-incumbency sentiment, but exit polls suggest this factor has not significantly materialized. The polls indicate that opposition votes have been divided between the Mahagathbandhan alliance and the Jan Suraaj Party, ultimately benefiting the ruling coalition.