Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Jan Suraaj Party Projected to Surpass Congress Vote Share Despite Being Newcomer

The Jan Suraaj Party, established just over a year ago, has made a remarkable impression according to recent exit polls.

New Delhi:

Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly elections have forecasted a decisive victory for the NDA coalition. NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls, which consolidates multiple surveys, indicates the ruling alliance is projected to secure 147 seats in the 243-member assembly, significantly exceeding the majority threshold of 122 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is predicted to win 90 seats, with the newly formed Jan Suraaj Party expected to claim just 1 seat.

According to Peoples Pulse, one of the polling agencies, the NDA is projected to win between 133-159 constituencies, while the Mahagathbandhan could secure 75-101 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is estimated to win between 0-5 seats. The detailed vote share analysis from Peoples Pulse suggests the NDA will capture 46.2% of votes, while the Grand Alliance will receive 37.9%.

The pollster's breakdown of individual party performance shows the RJD maintaining the highest vote share at 23.3%, followed by the BJP with 21.4%, JDU with 17.6%, Jan Suraaj Party with 9.7%, and Congress with 8.7%. The polling agency has acknowledged a potential 3% margin of error in their projections.

Important caution: Exit polls have frequently proven inaccurate in past elections.

Comparing with the 2020 election results, these predictions suggest the RJD will experience a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from its previous 23.5% share. In contrast, the BJP is expected to gain 1.6 percentage points from its earlier 19.8%. Similarly, the JDU's vote share is forecast to increase by 1.9 percentage points, contributing significantly to the NDA's projected victory.

A particularly notable prediction concerns the Jan Suraaj Party, which despite being just over a year old, is projected to secure a 9.7% vote share—one percentage point higher than the Congress party, India's oldest political organization. This would also exceed the Congress party's 2020 performance of 9.6%, which had translated to 19 seats at that time.

Despite this impressive vote share projection, Peoples Pulse estimates Prashant Kishor's party will win a maximum of only five seats, suggesting their support may be widely distributed rather than concentrated enough to convert into constituency victories.