Bihar Election 2025: Exit Polls Predict Comfortable NDA Victory with 147 Seats

New Delhi:

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal United (along with their smaller allies, including Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party) are projected to secure a comfortable victory in the 2025 Bihar Assembly election, winning 147 of the state's 243 seats, according to combined data from multiple exit polls.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led opposition alliance, which includes the Congress party that reluctantly named the RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate, is expected to finish significantly behind with 90 seats.

Notably, poll strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, which some viewed as a potential kingmaker in this politically volatile state, is predicted to perform poorly in its electoral debut, winning at most one seat.

Approximately five seats could be claimed by non-aligned parties and independent candidates.

Caution: exit poll data is often unpredictable and may not accurately reflect final results.

The majority threshold in the Bihar Assembly is 122 seats.

The most significant victory margins are projected by P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, TIF Research, and Matrize polling agencies.

P-Marq's data suggests the NDA will secure between 142 and 162 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (opposition alliance) will struggle to exceed 98 seats, with Kishor's Jan Suraj obtaining between one and four seats.

Interestingly, P-Marq stands alone among exit polls in predicting at least one seat for Prashant Kishor's party.

TIF Research similarly forecasts a substantial win for the BJP-led coalition, projecting 145 to 163 seats for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's alliance, while limiting the opposition to only 76 to 95 seats.

The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll indicates the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will capture between 145 and 160 seats, while Matrize anticipates a comparable outcome of 147 to 167 seats. Both polls assign the Mahagathbandan between 70 and 90 seats, highlighting the anticipated wide margin of victory for the NDA.

Neither poll grants the Jan Suraaj more than three seats.

The People's Insight and Peoples Pulse exit polls also predict the BJP and JDU will maintain power in Bihar, though with narrower margins. The former suggests 133 to 148 seats for the ruling alliance and 87-102 for the RJD, Congress, and their smaller partners, including a Left front.

The latter forecasts 133 to 159 seats for the BJP-JDU coalition and 75-101 for the RJD-Congress alliance.

None of these four polls show significant support for Kishor and his Jan Suraaj. The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll specifically predicts zero seats for his party. Matrize and People's Insight forecast a maximum of two seats.

Peoples Pulse offers the most generous projection, suggesting the poll strategist might win up to five seats.

The JVC exit poll provides a more conservative estimate, endorsing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's administration but with fewer seats than other predictions. According to JVC, the NDA is likely to win between 135 and 150 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 88 to 133, and the Jan Suraaj possibly one seat.

Numbers from the DV Research poll are similar, projecting the NDA to secure between 135 and 150 seats and the Mahagathbandhan between 83 and 98.

Surprisingly, this poll suggests Jan Suraaj could win a minimum of two seats.

The Chanakya Strategies data offers the most hope for the RJD and Congress; while still predicting a BJP and JDU victory, it suggests the opposition could win as many as 108 seats.

According to this poll, the ruling alliance would claim between 130 and 138 seats—sufficient for a majority but with a smaller margin than other exit polls predict. It projects the Mahagathbandhan would secure between 100 and 108 seats, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj would win zero seats.

Voter turnout has been a significant discussion point in this election, with over 65 percent participation recorded in the first phase and more than 67 percent recorded until 5 pm today.

Voting for the second and final phase—covering 122 of the state's 243 seats—concluded earlier today.

The first phase was conducted on November 6, with vote counting scheduled for November 14.

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