Exit Polls Show Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party May Win Votes But Few Seats in Bihar Elections

In nine exit polls, the maximum number of seats predicted for the Jan Suraaj Party is five.

New Delhi/Patna:

During the Bihar Assembly elections campaign, poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor repeatedly stated about his Jan Suraaj Party's prospects - "arsh pe ya farsh pe" (either sky high or on the floor), indicating it would either perform exceptionally well or extremely poorly.

Following the second phase of voting, exit polls have placed the party decidedly on the floor, at least regarding seat count.

Caution: Exit polls frequently prove inaccurate.

All nine available exit polls - Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People's Insight, Peoples Pulse, JVC, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies, DV Research, and TIF research - have projected a clear victory for the ruling NDA, defeat for the opposition Mahagathbandhan, and a disappointing outcome for the Jan Suraaj Party, which Kishor established as a third alternative in Bihar.

The pollsters have provided seat ranges, with seven starting at zero for Jan Suraaj Party, suggesting it might fail to secure any seats despite contesting nearly all of Bihar's 243 constituencies - more than any other party.

Peoples Pulse projected 0-5 seats (the highest upper limit among these seven), Dainik Bhaskar 0-3, People's Insight 0-2, Matrize 0-2, and JVC 0-1. The exceptions are P-Marq, predicting 1-4 seats, DV Research projecting 2-4 seats, while Chanakya Strategies and TIF Research both forecast zero seats for the party.

NDTV's Poll Of Exit Polls, aggregating these predictions, indicates the BJP-JDU-led NDA will win 147 seats - well above the 122 majority threshold. The RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure only 90 seats - 20 fewer than its 2020 tally of 110 - while the Jan Suraaj Party is predicted to get just 1 seat.

Bihar has recorded historically high voter turnout at 64.67% and 68.76% in both phases. The Mahagathbandhan and Jan Suraaj Party had hoped this indicated anti-incumbency sentiment, but exit polls and analysts suggest otherwise.

Vote Share Impact?

Exit polls indicate that while Jan Suraaj Party may not win many constituencies, it will capture a significant percentage of votes. Concerning for the Mahagathbandhan is that most of this vote share likely comes from their supporters rather than the NDA's base.

Analysts suggest that whatever anti-incumbency voting existed in Bihar has potentially split between Mahagathbandhan and Prashant Kishor's party, ultimately harming the opposition.

However, some experts emphasize that Jan Suraaj Party is merely one year old, making it challenging for a new organization to establish itself in Bihar, where even regional parties don't contest all 243 constituencies and typically rely on alliances to form government.