Bihar Assembly Election 2024: Nitish Kumar Leads CM Race with 42% Support, Modi Factor Remains Significant

According to recent polling data, Nitish Kumar of JD-U emerges as the predominant choice for chief minister, favored by 42 percent of the electorate.

New Delhi:

Following the Election Commission of India's announcement of the Bihar Legislative Assembly election schedule on Monday, with voting scheduled for November 6 and 11 across two phases and results to be declared on November 14, an IANS-Matrize News Communications opinion poll reveals significant voter preferences and highlights the substantial 'Modi factor' in the upcoming elections. The survey indicates 57 percent of respondents believe Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity will significantly influence election outcomes, with an additional 8 percent suggesting it will have some impact.

The poll results reflect favorably on the BJP, with 35 percent of participants identifying it as the party most capable of providing effective governance in Bihar, surpassing JD(U) at 18 percent, RJD at 13 percent, Jan Suraj at 8 percent, Congress at 2 percent, and other parties trailing behind.

Conducted prior to the announcement of election dates, the survey demonstrates robust public approval for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's administration, particularly regarding law and order improvements, while also identifying persistent challenges such as unemployment and inflation that could potentially hinder the NDA's campaign for reelection.

In the contest for chief ministerial preference, Nitish Kumar (JD-U) stands as the clear frontrunner, commanding 42 percent support if elections were held immediately.

Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) follows at a considerable distance with 15 percent, while former political strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party receives 9 percent approval.

Additional contenders include Chirag Paswan (LJP-Ram Vilas) with 8 percent support, Samrat Choudhary (BJP) at 3 percent, and both Giriraj Singh (BJP) and Upendra Kushwaha (JD-U) at 1 percent each.

Notably, 17 percent of respondents remain undecided, while 4 percent express preference for other candidates.

The comprehensive IANS-Matrize survey, titled 'Opinion Poll Report @ Bihar,' evaluated voter sentiment across numerous aspects, from local MLA performance to welfare program effectiveness and leadership preferences.

A significant finding reveals substantial satisfaction with the Nitish Kumar government, with 42 percent of participants reporting being "very satisfied" and 31 percent "satisfied," culminating in an impressive 73 percent approval rating.

Regarding law and order, a fundamental component of Nitish's political reputation, 72 percent prefer his administration over Lalu Yadav's previous governance (10 percent), while 12 percent express dissatisfaction with both and 6 percent remain uncertain.

This favorable assessment could strengthen the NDA alliance, particularly as the 2025 Assembly elections follow Nitish Kumar's return to the coalition in 2024.

Welfare initiatives appear to be significant electoral advantages. The provision of 125 free electricity units is regarded as highly beneficial by 61 percent of respondents and somewhat beneficial by 9 percent, with only 21 percent anticipating no advantage.

Similarly, the Mahila Rozgar Yojana, which distributes Rs 10,000 installments to women, has positively influenced the economic circumstances of 52 percent of families (quite positive) and 10 percent (somewhat positive), though 19 percent report no effect and 19 percent remain uncertain.

However, considerable skepticism surrounds the Opposition RJD's promise of creating 10 lakh government positions, with 61 percent expressing "no trust at all," compared to 18 percent with "full trust," 11 percent with "partial" trust, and 10 percent "unsure."

This widespread doubt could undermine Tejashwi Yadav's campaign, which has emphasized employment opportunities for youth.

Concerning the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision of voter lists, 54 percent endorse it as a "good step," 17 percent consider it "necessary," while 16 percent remain "undecided."