Opinion | 'TACO' Routine, And Other Explanations For Trump's Great India Meltdown
Trump had already pushed the initial deadline for the tariffs from July to August, and another extension would further entrench the belief in the 'TACO' - 'Trump Always Chickens Out' - theory.
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The India-US relationship is experiencing rapid shifts and growing tensions. The Trump administration's recent imposition of 25% tariffs on India has created two significant contradictions in bilateral relations. These tariffs came unexpectedly while negotiations were still ongoing, revealing a disconnect between diplomatic communications and actual policy implementation.
A Twofold Challenge
Despite these tensions, there remains underlying confidence in the relationship's overall trajectory. India responded diplomatically to the tariffs, expressing willingness to continue dialogue while clearly establishing boundaries. Notably, the tariffs imposed on India exceed those applied to other Asian economies including Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan. Perhaps more concerning than the tariffs themselves is President Trump's reference to India's energy relationship with Russia, suggesting broader strategic concerns beyond trade issues. As these negotiations continue, India faces two key challenges: addressing the economic impact of increased US tariffs domestically, and managing potential secondary sanctions related to its Russian ties, particularly as the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists.
Political Maneuvering?
Regarding trade negotiations, final resolutions may still be forthcoming. There remains possibility that India and the US will continue discussions to reach a more favorable arrangement, even as the tariffs remain in effect. Trump's announcement follows a series of domestic and international frustrations. Having already delayed the tariff deadline from July to August, further postponement would reinforce the 'TACO' theory - 'Trump Always Chickens Out'. Practically speaking, extending beyond August 1 would complicate Washington's other negotiations, particularly with China, which had been progressing well. Domestically, taking a hard stance against major economies helps divert attention from the Epstein controversy within Washington political circles.
Internationally, taking a tough position against India - a strategic partner Trump has claimed close ties with - could strengthen Washington's negotiating position with Beijing, a more economically significant target.
The Russian Dilemma
Another international challenge facing Trump is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite numerous approaches - from isolating Ukraine to criticizing Russia - Trump has failed to bring Putin to negotiations or end the war. The Russia issue has gradually escalated for Trump with the introduction of the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 in Congress. As Trump confronts the difficulties in resolving this conflict, his frustrations may increasingly manifest as economic pressure tactics against various stakeholders.
India appears to recognize the futility of entering a retaliatory cycle with Donald Trump and has consistently shown openness to measured concessions in specific sectors during trade negotiations. However, granting unrestricted market access to the world's largest economy, which operates under fundamentally different economic principles, could disadvantage India's developing economy where income inequality and wealth distribution remain significant issues.
Universal Tariff Strategy
As more countries face Trump's tariff approach, patterns emerge. From the perspective of a volatile president determined to secure deals on his terms to rebalance American trade, Trump is normalizing the practice of imposing tariffs on friends, partners, and allies alike. His pragmatic approach to international relations focuses singularly on American economic gain, regardless of the economic or political circumstances of affected countries. As the world's largest economy, the US can make independent decisions that impose costs on others.
Should Trump persist with this approach, the new parameters established during his presidency may become permanent features of America's international relations. While these measures will reshape the economic order, they could significantly alter geopolitics - most concerningly in the Indo-Pacific region.
Return to Previous Patterns
The timing of these developments exacerbates the recent tensions in India-US relations that began when Trump hastily claimed credit for de-escalating India-Pakistan hostilities following Operation Sindoor. Subsequently, Trump repeatedly attempted to control the peace narrative and, in doing so, re-linked India and Pakistan diplomatically. This strategy backfired when India firmly rejected any Trump-led mediation in resolving hostilities with Pakistan. Characteristically, Trump has pivoted toward Pakistan, seeking economic advantages. The announcement of a US-Pakistan trade agreement "expanding market access, attracting investment, and fostering cooperation in areas of mutual interest," along with collaboration on oil reserve development, signals developments unfavorable to India-US relations.
Recent events increasingly resemble America's historical closeness with Islamabad. Though driven by economic logic, Trump's engagement with Pakistan will undoubtedly be carefully scrutinized in New Delhi.
(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President, ORF, and Vivek Mishra is Fellow, Americas, at the organisation)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author