Study Warns: Major Aid Cuts Could Cause 22.6 Million Deaths in Developing Nations by 2030

According to a new comprehensive study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and partner organizations, drastic reductions in development aid from major donor countries could result in approximately 22.6 million additional deaths in developing nations by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five years of age.

This alarming warning emerges as key donors including the United States, Britain, Germany, and France have simultaneously decreased development assistance for the first time in nearly three decades, with further reductions planned for 2025. The ISGlobal research indicates these continuing cuts could potentially reverse decades of significant progress in global health initiatives and poverty reduction efforts.

The global health research center's detailed report, reviewed by Reuters, analyzed data from 93 low- and middle-income countries to project the potential impact of additional reductions in official development assistance (ODA) in 2025, following substantial cuts over the previous five years.

The research concluded that a severe reduction in assistance would potentially trigger 22.6 million additional deaths, with 5.4 million being children under five, by 2030. These projections significantly exceed the research institute's previous estimates that had focused exclusively on US funding cuts.

Researchers modeled three distinct scenarios: a severe reduction scenario, a mild reduction scenario, and a baseline scenario maintaining 2023 funding levels.

The severe reduction model projects cuts reaching 25% in the poorest countries and 28% in sub-Saharan Africa. Even under the mild scenario with less dramatic reductions, researchers estimate 9.4 million preventable deaths could occur, including 2.5 million children under five.

Human rights advocates and development experts have cautioned that US President Donald Trump's initiatives to dismantle USAID and substantially reduce development aid—actions being mirrored by other donor nations—will inevitably lead to increases in preventable mortality.

The study released on Monday by a coalition of health and development organizations builds upon previous research published in The Lancet medical journal in June, which estimated that deep cuts to the US Agency for International Development could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030.

This new study, currently under peer review at The Lancet, highlighted that if the US, Britain, Germany, and France implement further reductions in 2025, it would mark the first instance where all four countries have simultaneously decreased ODA for two consecutive years.

"This abrupt withdrawal leaves little scope for the implementation of adaptive strategies," the researchers emphasized in their findings.

The study noted significant aid reductions already announced by several European nations: Britain (40%), France (37%), the Netherlands (30%), and Belgium (25%). According to the authors, this substantial loss of aid funding for developing countries threatens to reverse three decades of unprecedented advancements in health outcomes, education access, and poverty reduction efforts.