UK Introduces Time-Limited Refugee Status in Major Asylum System Overhaul

Home Office has deported or removed nearly 50,000 immigrants in UK illegally since Labour came to power.

London:

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will on Monday announce comprehensive changes to the UK asylum system, including Danish-inspired proposals to limit refugees' stay duration in the country, according to sources familiar with the plans.

Mahmood is expected to commit to doing "whatever it takes" to regain control of Britain's borders, and will describe irregular migrants crossing the English Channel or those overstaying their visas as individuals who are "gaming the system."

This represents the Labour government's latest attempt to project a tough stance on immigration, as it seeks to reclaim voters concerned about small boat arrivals who are increasingly supporting Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform UK party. Despite securing only five of 650 parliamentary seats in the 2024 general election, polling indicates Reform would emerge as the largest party if an election were held now.

The number of small boat arrivals has reached almost 40,000 so far this year, potentially reaching the highest annual total since 2022, despite Labour's commitment to "smash" the criminal organizations facilitating these crossings. More than 400,000 people have sought asylum since 2021, nearly triple the number recorded between 2011 and 2015.

According to figures released this week, the Home Office has deported or removed nearly 50,000 illegal immigrants since Labour took office, representing a 23% increase compared to the previous 16 months. However, Mahmood aims to send a clearer message to those arriving from safe countries like France that they should not undertake the journey.

Sources close to Mahmood revealed earlier this week that the Home Office plans to model its system more closely on countries such as Denmark, which has experienced a decline in asylum seekers after making it more difficult for them to claim the legal right to remain.

A delegation of senior officials recently traveled to Copenhagen to study the Danish approach, according to a source familiar with Home Office decisions.

The protection currently granted to refugees, which is permanent, will become time-limited with regular reviews of their immigration status. People will be removed once their home country is deemed safe.

"Reviewing whether it is safe to return could be labor-intensive if it requires the government effectively to reassess all refugees' protection claims," said Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

"Taking a Denmark-style package as whole, it is difficult to predict how much such policies would affect asylum seekers' decisions to come to the UK. Asylum seekers are not always fully aware of the policies in place. Many other factors affect their decisions to come to the UK."

Any crackdown attempt will likely face opposition from the Labour Party's left wing and others who believe Keir Starmer's government is abandoning those fleeing persecution and war, while allowing Farage to influence its policy direction.

"Refugees don't compare asylum systems before running for their lives. They come to the UK because they already have family here, speak some English or have long-standing ties that help them rebuild their lives in safety," said Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council.

"In reality, people in that situation will often be unable to safely return after only a few years. Refugees should be able to rebuild their lives and contribute to this country - as doctors, nurses, carers, entrepreneurs and valued members of their communities."

Mahmood, whose September appointment as home secretary was widely interpreted as a sign of Labour hardening its immigration stance, is expected to declare that the border "crisis" is "out of control." She will argue that it strains communities and is unfair to hardworking, tax-paying Britons.

She will add that the UK's "generosity" toward asylum seekers is attracting people from across Europe - and that failure to address Channel migration could see moderate politics replaced by "something darker." Sources close to the home secretary indicated she was warning dissenters that "If you don't like this, you won't like what follows me."

Mahmood's speech comes as Starmer confronts multiple political challenges. The prime minister has been weakened following anonymous allegations against a cabinet minister accused of plotting to remove him. Additionally, on Friday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves abandoned the main tax-raising component of her budget plans, triggering a bond market selloff.

With Starmer's leadership once again under scrutiny, Mahmood - known as an effective communicator - is viewed as a potential future Labour leader, according to Betfair Exchange odds.