China's C919 Passenger Jet Struggles Amid US-China Trade Tensions and Western Supply Dependencies

Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which made its maiden commercial flight in 2023.

Hong Kong:

China's ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its homegrown passenger jet is encountering significant obstacles, with deliveries of completed aircraft likely falling considerably short of the target announced for this year.

The C919 jet - a single-aisle passenger aircraft designed to compete with Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320 - is manufactured by state-owned COMAC. Beijing presents it as evidence of China's technological advancement and progress toward self-reliance, despite its reliance on numerous Western-sourced components.

Growing trade tensions with Washington threaten to block COMAC from obtaining essential parts for this program, which has received substantial Chinese government subsidies.

"COMAC faces significant risk from the volatile policy environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and retaliatory measures between the U.S. and China," explained Max J. Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board think tank.

According to Bank of America analysts, the C919 depends on 48 major suppliers from the US - including GE, Honeywell and Collins - 26 from Europe and 14 from China. Trump has threatened new export controls on "critical" software to China following Beijing's stricter export controls on rare earths.

"Existing choke points are being exploited in the deal making process between governments," Zenglein noted. "This trend will likely continue as critical dependencies have become political bargaining chips."

Beijing has invested considerable hope in the C919, which completed its first commercial flight in 2023. The mid-sized jet is intended to help satisfy China's vast domestic demand for new aircraft over the coming decades. China aims to expand sales internationally, targeting markets in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

According to aviation consultancy Cirium, COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese carriers last year but only seven as of October this year, despite plans to increase production and deliver 30 jets by 2025.

Currently, China's major state-owned airlines - Air China, China Eastern and China Southern - are the only commercial carriers operating approximately 20 C919s.

Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA, stated that trade tensions between the U.S. and China have "directly affected" delivery schedules for the C919. Production plans were disrupted when the U.S. suspended export licenses for the jet's LEAP-1C engines around May, resuming them in July.

Taylor explained that U.S.-controlled technology requiring export licensing for the LEAP-1C engines - jointly manufactured by the U.S.'s GE Aerospace and France's Safran - means the C919's engines need U.S. export clearance, making the program "inherently sensitive to political shifts."

"Engine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC's control," Taylor added.

Geopolitical tensions are not solely responsible for slower than expected C919 production. According to Zenglein from The Conference Board, the program has been "marked by caution and prioritizing quality and safety, so there also may be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp up."

While "it has always been the aim to reduce the reliance on foreign components as quickly as possible" for the C919, many analysts consider this a challenging process. China's domestic engine alternative - the CJ-1000A under development by state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) - remains in testing, according to IBA.

Several airlines outside China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in the C919, but lack of international certification has prevented the aircraft from operating beyond Chinese borders. Certifications from U.S. and European Union aviation regulators could take years.

Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, stated that for the C919 to succeed, it "needs to have each one of three things: good economics, a prompt global product support network, and certification from safety agencies." He emphasized that "any one of these three alone doesn't mean much."

According to Airbus' latest market forecast, China will require 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, with more than 80% being single-aisle jets like the C919.

COMAC faces increasing competition from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line scheduled to begin operations in 2026 will allow Airbus to increase production of its A320 single-aisle jets in China - an aircraft model similar to the C919.

Analysts predict that disrupting the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in global aircraft market share will take COMAC years. IBA's Taylor expects that by the late 2020s, COMAC will likely grow within China and possibly establish regional exports.

In the near term, lack of international certification will be "delaying any meaningful Western-market entry" for the jet, and export control volatility will likely continue to undermine its global expansion plans, Taylor concluded.