Israel's Continued Strikes in Lebanon Post-Ceasefire: A Potential Model for Gaza's Future

Near-daily Israeli attacks have become the new normal in Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement.

Beirut:

While Gaza experienced a fragile ceasefire this month, Israel continued launching airstrikes in southern Lebanon, even though a ceasefire had been in place there for 11 months.

One such bombardment targeting a construction equipment business resulted in the death of a Syrian civilian, injured seven people including two women, and destroyed bulldozers and excavators worth millions of dollars.

The October 11 strikes would be considered extraordinary in most countries at peace. However, in Lebanon, Israeli military actions have become almost routine, despite the US-brokered truce between Israel and Hezbollah that was established nearly a year ago.

Analysts suggest this scenario could foreshadow what lies ahead for Gaza under its ceasefire arrangement—continued but reduced-intensity conflict. On Sunday, Israel conducted strikes in Gaza after claiming Hamas fired at its troops, marking the first significant test of the US-negotiated truce.

Mona Yacoubian from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies described Lebanon's situation more accurately as a "lessfire" rather than a true ceasefire.

She noted that Lebanon "could well serve as the model for Gaza, essentially giving leeway to Israeli forces to strike whenever they deem a threat without a full resumption of conflict."

The recent Israel-Hezbollah hostilities began immediately after the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war. Hezbollah, predominantly based in southern Lebanon, initiated rocket fire into Israel in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians.

Israel countered with airstrikes and artillery. This limited conflict intensified into full-scale warfare by September 2024.

The November 27, 2024 ceasefire required Lebanon to prevent armed groups from attacking Israel while Israel agreed to halt "offensive" military operations in Lebanon. Both parties retained the right to act in "self-defence," though the agreement left this term undefined.

The agreement established a monitoring committee comprising the US, France, Israel, Lebanon, and UNIFIL (UN peacekeeping force), but enforcement mechanisms remain vague.

In practice, Israel has largely taken enforcement into its own hands, justifying its ongoing strikes in Lebanon as targeting Hezbollah fighters, facilities, and weapons stockpiles.

Israel maintains these actions prevent the severely weakened Hezbollah from rebuilding its capabilities. Lebanese officials counter that these attacks impede their efforts to disarm Hezbollah by providing the group with justification to retain its weapons.

Lebanon further asserts that Israeli strikes, including the October 11 incident, frequently harm civilians and damage infrastructure unrelated to Hezbollah.

According to Lebanon's health ministry, Israeli military actions since the ceasefire have killed more than 270 people and wounded approximately 850. The UN human rights office verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants as of October 9, according to spokesperson Thameen Al-Kheetan.

No Israelis have been killed by fire from Lebanon since the ceasefire began.

UNIFIL spokesperson Kandice Ardiel reported that from November 27, 2024, to mid-October, they detected roughly 950 projectiles fired from Israel into Lebanon and 100 Israeli airstrikes. During the same period, only 21 projectiles were fired from Lebanon toward Israel, with Hezbollah claiming responsibility for just one attack since the ceasefire.

Following the October 11 strikes in Msayleh, Israel's military stated it targeted "engineering equipment intended for the reconstruction of terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon."

This claim was contested by Lebanese authorities, Hezbollah, and the equipment's owner.

"Everyone in Lebanon, from all different sects, comes to buy from us," owner Ahmad Tabaja told journalists. "What have we done wrong?"

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun characterized the strikes as "blatant aggression against civilian facilities." Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri accused Israel of attempting to obstruct community reconstruction efforts. Lebanon subsequently filed a complaint with the UN Security Council.

Days later, Israel struck a cement factory and quarry, alleging Hezbollah planned to use them to rebuild its infrastructure.

Last month, an Israeli strike hit a motorcycle and a car carrying a family in Bint Jbeil. The attack killed Shadi Charara, a car salesman, three of his children—including 18-month-old twins—and a motorcyclist, while severely injuring Charara's wife and oldest daughter. This incident, with one of the highest civilian death tolls since the ceasefire, provoked particular outrage because children were among the casualties.

"My brother was a civilian and his children and wife are civilians, and they have nothing to do with politics," said his sister Amina Charara.

Israel's military claimed it was targeting an unnamed Hezbollah fighter but acknowledged civilian casualties.

Even when the target is a confirmed Hezbollah member, the military necessity of such strikes remains contentious.

Earlier this month, an Israeli drone strike killed Hassan Atwi, a Hezbollah member who had been blinded during Israel's exploding pagers attack last year, along with his wife. Israel's army identified him as a key official in Hezbollah's Aerial Defence Unit, while Hezbollah officials maintained he had ceased all military activities after losing his eyesight.

Hezbollah was established in 1982 with Iranian support to combat Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon. Israeli forces withdrew in 2000, and Hezbollah subsequently developed into one of the region's most formidable non-state armed organizations.

In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a month-long war that ended without a clear victor. For the next 17 years, "there was a tense calm ... that was largely due to mutual deterrence," according to Nicholas Blanford, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Middle East program.

Military strikes within Lebanon were generally considered off-limits, as neither side wished to risk another destructive conflict. This equilibrium has now fundamentally changed.

Although Blanford acknowledged that Hezbollah could still inflict damage on Israel, the group's "deterrence has been shattered by the recent war."

In an interview with The Associated Press last month, Hezbollah political official Mohammad Fneish stated that continued Israeli attacks were "not acceptable."

However, the group has primarily limited its response to urging Lebanon's government to pressure Israel through what Fneish described as "its political, diplomatic or other capabilities."

He added: "If things develop further, then the resistance leadership is studying matters, and all options are open."

Analyst Yacoubian predicted the situation in Lebanon would likely remain unchanged in the near term, "barring a breakthrough in behind-the-scenes negotiations brokered by the US."

Regarding the Gaza ceasefire, she noted the difference might be the "significant role" played by additional mediators Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey.