Analyzing Potential Ukraine Peace Deal: Territorial Claims, NATO Question, and Security Guarantees

Ukraine seeks guarantees against future invasion. (File)

Moscow:

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest to discuss potential resolutions to the Ukraine conflict.

What might a peace agreement entail?

Territorial Considerations

Russia currently controls over 116,000 square kilometers (44,800 square miles) of Ukraine, representing more than 19% of the country's territory - an area approximately half the size of the United Kingdom, according to Russian military sources.

Moscow claims that Crimea (annexed in 2014), Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as Donbas), plus Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are now legally integrated into Russia.

Three sources familiar with Kremlin strategy revealed that following Putin's August summit with Trump, Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk - approximately 20% of the region, around 5,300 square kilometers.

This represents a reduction from his earlier 2024 demand for Kyiv to surrender all of Donbas plus Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, totaling nearly 20,000 square kilometers.

Crimea, transferred to Ukraine in 1954 by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, has received recognition as Russian territory from Syria, North Korea, and Nicaragua. Putin has criticized Western powers for apparent double standards by not following suit, citing their recognition of Kosovo's independence in 2008 despite objections from Russia and Serbia.

NATO Membership Question

A key condition from Putin for ending hostilities is a formal written commitment from Western leaders to halt NATO's eastward expansion.

At the 2008 Bucharest summit, NATO leadership agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become members. Ukraine subsequently amended its constitution in 2019, committing to pursue full membership in both NATO and the European Union.

Trump has indicated that previous US support for Ukraine's NATO membership aspirations contributed to the conflict, suggesting Ukraine will not receive membership under his administration.

Russia seeks written guarantees regarding NATO because Putin believes Moscow was misled by the United States after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, when US Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand eastward, according to Russian sources.

NATO maintains that individual countries have the sovereign right to choose alliance membership.

Russia has repeatedly proposed new security frameworks for Europe, expressing dissatisfaction with NATO's post-Cold War European dominance. European diplomats have rejected these proposals, characterizing them as extensions of Russia's historical attempts to influence European affairs.

Security Guarantee Mechanisms

Ukraine seeks assurances against future invasion, while Western powers are reluctant to commit to arrangements that could potentially draw them into direct conflict with Russia, the world's largest nuclear power.

A draft agreement nearly finalized in April 2022 following Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul proposed that Ukraine would accept permanent neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from the UN Security Council's permanent members: Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States.

Russia has referenced this framework as a model for future negotiations. Ukraine and its European allies have expressed doubts about Russia's reliability as a guarantor.

Russia has additionally demanded limitations on Ukraine's military capabilities and protections for Russian speakers and Orthodox believers.

Economic Considerations and Frozen Assets

Following his conversation with Putin, Trump mentioned potential resumption of US-Russia trade relations if peace were achieved. Many Washington policymakers have expressed concern regarding the "no limits" partnership between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, suggesting efforts to realign Russia closer to the United States.

Particularly significant for Russia would be restored access to dollar-denominated global transactions and Western financial institutions.

European powers are exploring mechanisms to utilize approximately 210 billion euros of frozen Russian sovereign assets to finance Ukraine's defense and reconstruction efforts.

Russia characterizes any seizure of these assets as theft that would undermine confidence in the euro as a reserve currency and trigger protracted legal and other retaliatory measures. Moscow has suggested allocating some funds toward rebuilding Russian-controlled Ukrainian territories.

Humanitarian Concerns

US First Lady Melania Trump has reportedly established direct communication with Putin regarding the repatriation of Ukrainian children affected by the conflict with Russia.