China's Growing Nuclear Arsenal: Potential for Taiwan Strait Blackmail Following Russia's Ukraine Playbook

During a recent military parade in Tiananmen Square, China displayed three nuclear-capable missiles, raising significant international concerns.

Taipei:

The rapid expansion and diversification of China's nuclear arsenal has generated fears that Beijing might resort to "nuclear blackmail" or potentially engage in nuclear confrontation with Western nations should they intervene in a Taiwan scenario. This approach mirrors the Kremlin's threats during its Ukraine invasion, according to Central News Agency (CNA) reporting.

At the September 3 military parade in Tiananmen Square, China exhibited three missiles with nuclear payload capabilities: the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, and the DF-61 surface-to-surface intercontinental missile.

This provocative demonstration of what experts identify as a potential Chinese "nuclear triad" - the ability to launch nuclear weapons from air, land, and sea platforms - has intensified concerns among democratic countries. Previously, China lacked the capability for airborne nuclear strikes, CNA's report indicates.

MIT Security Studies Program principal research scientist Eric Heginbotham emphasized that China's sophisticated tactical nuclear weapons, including the DF-26, provide a "more credible" deterrent compared to its strategic arsenal, which Washington might view as actually deployable by Beijing in response to an American tactical nuclear strike.

"This not only diminishes US escalation dominance in overall capabilities but also provides [China] with more realistic options to respond proportionately to potential US tactical nuclear weapons use," Heginbotham stated, as reported by CNA.

In the past, China's exclusively strategic retaliatory options meant that any nuclear response against the US would be considered "suicidal," as it would trigger a devastating American counterattack resulting in enormous casualties.

"All of this increases China's ability to wage conventional warfare 'safely,' with reduced concern about US nuclear retaliation regarding Taiwan," Heginbotham noted.

Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation chairman Yang Tai-yuan warned that these developments could make the US less willing to deploy forces to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

"The Chinese Communist Party may have extracted lessons about nuclear intimidation from Russia during the Ukraine conflict and could threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against major powers intervening in its regional disputes, including those across the Taiwan Strait," Yang observed, according to the CNA report.

If the United States were to send troops to aid Taiwan, China might utilize its tactical nuclear arsenal to intimidate American forces in the western Pacific region, he suggested.

"The US would likely take such threats seriously and weigh its options between committing troops to the Taiwan Strait or limiting its response to diplomatic measures, such as expressing support through the United Nations, to avoid direct confrontation," he concluded, as cited in the CNA report.