Conservative Party's Fight for Survival: Badenoch's Blueprint Amid Rising Reform UK Challenge

Kemi Badenoch pledged to restore the party to its "timeless Conservative principles" that once made it electorally successful.

United Kingdom:

The Conservative Party leader addressed the annual conference on Wednesday, calling for a return to core values and proposing a "blueprint for Britain" founded on conservative principles as the party confronts an uncertain future.

Kemi Badenoch aims to revitalize the political party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher, which has continued to decline in polls since its devastating defeat in the 2024 general elections.

In her inaugural conference speech as leader, she committed to reestablishing the "timeless Conservative principles" that previously made the party an electoral powerhouse.

She asserted that the Tories were "the only party that can meet the test of our generation," highlighting Britain's economic challenges and high immigration rates.

Badenoch criticized Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer as "weak" and "useless" while largely ignoring Reform UK, the rising hard-right party that is eroding Conservative support and raising questions about the party's political viability.

"It is existential," stated political scientist Robert Ford regarding the crisis engulfing the United Kingdom's oldest political party, established in the 1830s.

"On the current numbers, you'll be able to fit Conservative MPs into a small coach after the next election," added the University of Manchester professor.

The Conservative Party has governed Britain for significant periods in recent history, including 18 years from 1979 to 1997 and 14 years between 2010 and 2024.

They have secured more general election victories and produced more prime ministers than any other modern UK political party, skillfully adapting to align with prevailing public sentiment.

The 2016 Brexit referendum triggered an unprecedented decline in the party's fortunes, leading to Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation and unleashing bitter internal conflicts.

The Conservatives cycled through four additional leaders, including Boris Johnson, who fell due to numerous scandals, and Liz Truss, forced to resign after a catastrophic budget, before voters removed them from office in July last year.

"They've only got themselves to blame in a sense," Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, told AFP.

"They made all sorts of promises on immigration and the economy, which they didn't deliver on in government. The public is rightly frustrated with them."

The 2023 election, won by Keir Starmer's Labour Party, reduced the Conservatives to just 121 lawmakers in Britain's 650-seat parliament, their worst electoral defeat ever.

Their position has deteriorated further as Reform UK, led by firebrand Eurosceptic Nigel Farage, challenges the Tories from the right.

In her speech to a packed auditorium, contrasting with the otherwise poorly attended four-day conference in Manchester, Badenoch announced policies to reduce the UK's deficit and "radically reform our welfare system."

Earlier in the week, she stated that any future Conservative government under her leadership would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and deport 150,000 irregular migrants annually.

With polls suggesting the next election, expected in 2029, will primarily be a contest between Starmer and Farage, Westminster speculation suggests Badenoch may not remain leader by then.

While the Conservatives have previously suffered major defeats, notably in 1945 and 1997, they have always had time to rebuild against Labour, a luxury that Reform's rise now denies them.

"The hole they're in is way, way deeper than any hole they've been in for a century or so," said Bale.

Several former Conservative MPs, one sitting lawmaker, and dozens of councillors have defected to Reform recently as surveys indicate the Conservatives face potential electoral devastation.

A YouGov poll from last month found that in an immediate general election, the Conservatives would be reduced to just 45 MPs.

This would place them fourth, behind the centrist Liberal Democrats, with Reform approaching a majority with 311 seats.

In such a scenario, Farage might invite the Conservatives to become junior partners in a coalition government.

Ford suggests that while some Conservative MPs and activists might find this appealing, they fear what he describes as "a black widow spider effect."

"You mate with the larger one and it eats you," he told AFP.