Ukraine Braces As Russia Steps Up Drive To Seize Donetsk's Fortress Belt

Ukraine Prepares As Russia Intensifies Campaign To Capture Donetsk's Fortress Belt

Russia currently controls approximately 70% of the Donetsk region.

Sloviansk, Ukraine:

Autumn is anticipated to bring another challenging ordeal for Ukrainian military forces as Russia escalates its efforts to capture an eastern region, formerly Ukraine's industrial center and a territory Moscow has long aimed to conquer.

Russia now dominates about 70% of the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces have retreated to a chain of four cities that analysts have named the "fortress belt," where they have successfully resisted Moscow's attempts to seize the region for years.

However, deficiencies in personnel, resources, and disorganized administration are making it increasingly difficult to withstand Russia's persistent pressure in the area.

As the invasion continues beyond three years despite months of US-led peace initiatives, experts and military officials indicate that Ukraine might struggle to counter an intensified campaign to capture the remaining cities in the region under Ukrainian control.

Analysts and Ukrainian officers believe that Russia is unlikely to engage in extended urban warfare and will avoid costly battles similar to the assault on Bakhmut, which continued for months with tremendous casualties on both sides.

"Following Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, the Russians clearly realized that major cities transform into extensive graveyards for their military, where they suffer thousands upon thousands of losses," stated Col. Pavlo Yurchuk, whose troops are defending a small city at the northern end of the fortress belt.

To bypass these cities, Russian forces are advancing on the flanks and increasingly employing infiltration tactics, dispatching small groups of soldiers through gaps between Ukrainian units.

Some of these groups have achieved tactical gains, penetrating behind the front line to conceal themselves in wooded areas or basements, occasionally occupying abandoned positions or disrupting supply routes. But the human toll is severe: of a five-soldier unit, Ukrainian commanders estimate, two typically die, one is wounded, one disappears, and only one survives to request drone delivery of water or medical supplies.

"These are tactical achievements, not strategic victories," Yurchuk explained. "This approach is very gradual and does not accomplish the objectives of encirclement or control of major settlements."

Drones and glide bombs are also playing a vital role, enabling Russia to strike troops and supplies headed to the front and to weaken Ukraine's strongholds without direct confrontation.

This summer, Russian forces increased attacks at the northern and southern sections of the Donetsk belt. Their strategy, according to Ukrainian officers, is to cut supply lines and encircle the region's cities rather than attacking them directly.

The region—one of four that Russia illegally annexed in 2022, though it did not control any of them—has become the center of combat since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

In northern Donetsk, Yurchuk's 63rd Brigade is fighting to maintain control of Lyman, a critical logistics center en route to Sloviansk.

With a pre-war population of 20,000, Lyman features rail connections, numerous basements and bomb shelters, robust infrastructure, and sturdy buildings where command posts or supply depots could be established. It was occupied during part of the first year of the full-scale invasion but liberated in Ukraine's autumn 2022 rapid counteroffensive.

If Russian forces succeed in capturing Lyman, Yurchuk stated, they could use it to accumulate troops and attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, a natural barrier that helps safeguard Sloviansk.

But the commander expresses confidence that Russia's latest offensive will not succeed.

"From a military perspective it appears sound—on the map it looks orderly—but after nearly three and a half years of conflict we all recognize that such deep maneuvers and extensive flanking operations are not Russia's strength," said Yurchuk. "They simply won't be able to manage and supply those penetrations, so I'm certain they will fail."

In southern Donetsk, Russia has progressed near Pokrovsk, advancing further around the fortress belt's southern stronghold of Kostiantynivka, once home to 67,000 residents but today virtually abandoned.

It's difficult to predict how the conflict will develop: Russia's advances could transform into a breakthrough allowing it to capture much of the region, or the fighting could continue for months or years.

While Russia achieves tactical gains without regard for human casualties, Ukraine confronts the harsh reality of troop shortages.

Fatigue and insufficient regular rotations could further weaken Ukraine's defenses.

"Personnel are clearly one of the fundamental challenges," said Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive Foundation, which has raised over $388 million during the past decade to equip Ukraine's forces. "Not just the quantity, but their distribution on the battlefield, the inefficiency of command, and the deficiencies in training and management."

Officially, he said, some brigades list thousands of soldiers but can only deploy hundreds in combat, a disparity he attributed not to Russian superiority but to mismanagement. He explained that the disorder means too many soldiers are sometimes assigned to identical tasks and targets while others remain uncovered.

"It's a systemic defect we can neither acknowledge nor resolve," he said. "Until we do, we must compensate with technology, with manpower, with the enemy's vulnerabilities on the battlefield, and with the bravery of people and volunteers who intervene where possible."

But he and others cautioned that these measures are temporary solutions unless broader changes occur.

"The general trend, measured over years, appears unfavorable for Ukraine," Chmut stated, adding that unless changes are implemented in the rear—such as addressing management failures in the army—and no new technology or geopolitical shift emerges, the outlook will remain bleak. "The longer this continues, the worse it will become—and without fresh resources the Russians will simply surpass us in quantity and capability."

"Just because the Russians advanced slowly previously doesn't mean they won't accelerate," warned Nick Reynolds, a research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. "Unfortunately, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been under tremendous pressure for an extended period."

The collapse of the fortress belt, he cautioned, would displace thousands of civilians and cause additional economic damage. And even after capturing the entire region, the invasion is unlikely to conclude.

"I see absolutely no reason, no indication why the Russian Federation or the Russian Armed Forces would stop" with the Donetsk region, Reynolds said.