Ukraine's Electoral Challenge: Why Holding Elections During Wartime Presents Major Hurdles for Zelensky

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed willingness to conduct elections - a demand from both Moscow and Washington - provided the United States and European allies can guarantee electoral security.

Zelensky suggested a potential timeframe of two to three months for organizing elections. However, numerous challenges would need addressing before Ukraine could hold a legitimate vote during wartime.

Ukraine has been operating under martial law since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, which legally prohibits elections. The country last held elections in 2019, and Russia now questions Zelensky's legitimacy since his term technically expired in May 2024.

The ongoing conflict presents substantial security concerns. Active fighting extends across more than 1,200 kilometers in eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine. Russian forces regularly target Ukrainian cities with drone and missile strikes, even in areas far from the frontline. Critical infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid, faces continuous disruption from Russian attacks.

Public opinion polling indicates most Ukrainians currently oppose holding elections during wartime, according to Anton Hrushetskyi from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko suggests that minimally, an air ceasefire would be necessary to begin electoral preparations. Ukraine would need to develop entirely new legislative frameworks for wartime elections, potentially requiring six months just to establish the legal foundation.

Voter accessibility poses another significant challenge. Approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians hold temporary protection status in European Union countries, necessitating hundreds of international polling stations.

Internally, over four million Ukrainian citizens are registered as displaced persons. Military personnel, numbering around one million, would require special voting arrangements to participate from frontline positions.

Additionally, Ukrainian authorities estimate that 4.5 million adult Ukrainian citizens remain in Russian-occupied territories, which constitute approximately 19% of Ukraine's land.

Despite these obstacles, polling data suggests Zelensky would likely perform well in any election. His wartime popularity, which initially reached 90% following the invasion, remains in the mid-50s despite declining from its peak. A major corruption scandal in the energy sector damaged his approval ratings, yet he continues to lead among traditional politicians.

Only Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to Britain and former military commander-in-chief, represents a potential electoral threat to Zelensky according to polls. However, Zaluzhnyi has declared no political ambitions, stating that defending the country must remain the priority while the war continues.