Global Trade Set to Exceed $35 Trillion in 2025: East Asia and Africa Lead Growth While 2026 Outlook Remains Uncertain

UNCTAD reports manufacturing experienced 10% growth over the past four quarters compared to the preceding period.

Global trade is projected to exceed $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time in history, though forecasts for 2026 appear more conservative, according to a United Nations report released Tuesday.

The UN Trade and Development Agency (UNCTAD) analysis indicates that east Asian and African markets have been the primary drivers of global trade expansion in 2025, with U.S. imports maintaining strong performance while Chinese imports have shown weaker growth.

Current projections suggest global trade will surpass $35 trillion in 2025, representing an increase of approximately $2.2 trillion—roughly seven percent—compared to 2024 figures, according to UNCTAD's year-end update.

Within this $2.2 trillion expansion, goods trade accounts for approximately $1.5 trillion, a six percent increase year-over-year, while services contribute around $750 billion, reflecting nearly nine percent growth.

"Trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum," UNCTAD stated in its report.

The agency noted that while global trade growth decelerated during the third quarter of 2025, it still maintained a 2.5 percent increase compared to the April-June period.

However, significant uncertainty clouds the outlook for the coming year.

"Looking to 2026, UNCTAD expects weaker growth as slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance," the report indicated.

Geopolitical fragmentation and increased economic vulnerability are also expected to impact trade activity negatively in the coming year.

UNCTAD highlighted that manufacturing expanded by 10 percent over the past four quarters compared to the previous four, primarily driven by electronics related to artificial intelligence demand.

In contrast, automotive trade experienced a four percent decline during the same period.