Turkey's Growing Role in India's Security Challenges: From Red Fort to Kashmir

In recent investigations surrounding the Delhi blasts, Turkey has emerged as a significant entity alongside the usual suspects. This isn't entirely surprising, as Turkey has increasingly appeared in matters detrimental to India's interests over recent years – whether supporting Pakistan against India, encouraging Kashmiri separatist sentiments, or disseminating narratives of Muslim victimhood in India through its media channels. A notable recent incident was Turkey blocking the overflight of AN-124 carrying Indian army's Apache helicopters, an overtly unfriendly action.

According to reports and investigations into the blast near Red Fort, the two primary accused, Dr. Umar Mohammed and Dr. Muzammil, were reportedly receiving guidance from a handler based in Ankara, Turkey, operating under the alias 'Ukasa'. Investigations have identified 68 suspicious mobile numbers active near the parking and blast site, with calls traced to Pakistan and Turkey. While the Indian government has refrained from making direct allegations against any country, focusing instead on internal dimensions, Turkey has issued a forceful rebuttal to these findings. Turkey's Center for Combating Disinformation declared on Turkish social media platform 'NSosyal' that reports linking Turkey to terrorist acts in India are part of a malicious disinformation campaign aimed at damaging bilateral relations.

Notably, five years ago in 2020, Greek journalist and defense analyst Andreas Mountzouroulias reported that according to information from local sources obtained by Kurdish news agency ANF, Abu Emsa, leader of the Suleyman Shah Brigade (a notorious terrorist organization within the Syrian National Army), had informed his gang members in northern Syrian city Afrin that Ankara intended to strengthen and reinforce Kashmir. While this may have been exaggerated, Hamas members – another militant organization supported by Turkey – were more recently spotted in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Even disregarding these coincidences, Turkey has clearly pursued a belligerent course against India since at least 2019, when it involved itself in debates concerning the reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir state.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan first raised the Kashmir issue during his address at the UN General Assembly after decades of silence on the matter. He has continued to raise this issue periodically at international forums, most recently this year. During his 2020 address to a joint session of Pakistan's Parliament, President Erdoğan emphasized Kashmir's importance to Turkey, reaffirming the country's support for Pakistan's position. Turkish state-run media consistently maintains criticism against India, promoting narratives not just about Kashmir but about "Muslim victimhood" generally in India and about "Hindutva fascism". Turkey has permitted Kashmir-related conferences and events on its soil, hosts Kashmiri dissidents, and frequently finances trips for journalists, scholars, and activists from Kashmir to attend conferences and seminars.

Interestingly, as events following Operation Sindoor demonstrated, Turkey has much to gain from positive relations with India – from tourism to investments and lucrative contracts. Yet it has deliberately chosen a confrontational approach. What explains this stance?

Religion is commonly cited as a primary factor. Turkey's ruling AKP is indeed an Islamist party with connections to the Muslim Brotherhood organization. This has shifted the country away from the secularist path established by Turkey's founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk toward a more Islamist direction – a change not welcomed by large segments of the Turkish population.

The current Turkish administration, ideologically inclined to reclaim Turkey's "rightful place" in history as the Ottoman Empire's successor and the Muslim world's leader, has heavily emphasized Muslim identity. As domestic challenges mounted, the government sought international opportunities to strengthen its position. With the European Union maintaining its Christian exclusivity, Turkey turned toward Muslim regions. Since most Arab countries view Turkey as a former colonial power, it had to look further eastward. Turkey's "Asia Anew" policy, aimed at developing closer relations with Asian states, aligned with its objective of positioning itself as a leader in the Muslim world, especially as the demographic center of the Muslim world has shifted toward South and Southeast Asia.

Religion provided ideological foundation for Turkey's more practical considerations amid economic struggles. With its formidable military and NATO membership, Turkey identified opportunities in conflicts, particularly those involving Muslim countries. Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh, reclaiming territory lost to Armenia decades earlier, was largely attributed to Turkish military assistance, bringing Turkey much-needed financial resources – Azerbaijan's defense procurement from Turkey in 2020 reached $123 million.

Celebrating this victory in Baku, Erdoğan characterized Ankara's support for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey's quest for its "deserved place in the world order."

Turkey's other successes also stem from conflict involvement. In Libya, Turkish intervention helped the Government of National Accord maintain control and force opposing factions into a ceasefire. This secured Libyan support for Turkey's claims on Eastern Mediterranean resources, where it competes with Greece and Cyprus, and resulted in a major defense agreement with Qatar, with which relations flourished during the Arab Spring and the 2017 Gulf rift.

Perhaps Turkey's most significant achievement has been in Syria, where after 13 years of civil war, Bashar Al-Assad's regime was overthrown and Mohammed Al Sharaa and his faction installed. This victory primarily resulted from Turkish logistical and military support, combined with Qatari resources, placing Turkey in a dominant position there with major defense collaboration underway. Turkey's role in facilitating the Islamic State has also been well-documented.

Turkish military capabilities and weapons success, particularly its drones, have secured lucrative contracts from countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Involvement in conflicts has proven profitable for Turkey, especially for the ruling administration facing growing domestic discontent. President Erdogan's interest in Kashmir should be viewed within this context. Combined with religious motivation, Turkey has significantly increased arms sales to Pakistan, and its support was evident during India's Operation Sindoor.

Pakistan has utilized Turkish-made drones, hosted a Turkish Ada Class anti-submarine corvette at Karachi port on May 2, and welcomed Turkish military advisors. Turkey has become Pakistan's second-largest arms supplier. In 2018, Turkey's STM Defence Technologies secured a $1 billion deal for four corvettes for the Pakistan Navy. The countries regularly conduct joint military exercises. Pakistan's National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) has established an agreement with Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar for research and development. Reports indicate that Turkey supplies Pakistan with F16 fighting falcon jets, demonstrating extensive cooperation.

More concerning for India is Turkey's expanding military presence to India's east – in Bangladesh. Turkey's defense engagement with Bangladesh began under India's ally Sheikh Hasina. However, under the interim government of Chief Advisor Mohammed Yunus, defense ties between the two nations have intensified significantly. Bangladesh plans to acquire Turkey's SİPER long-range air defense system, purchase 26 Turkish Tulpar light tanks, and co-produce combat drones. Turkey is also negotiating to establish two defense industry complexes in Bangladesh – a major strategic development in South Asia as it represents another external power's entry into the Bay of Bengal region.

Alongside military interventions and support, Turkey pursues a policy of patronizing rebel and militant Muslim groups and individuals, such as Syrian rebels and figures like the late Jamal Khashoggi. This approach helps endear Turkey to these communities, winning support and loyalty while promoting its soft power through Sufism, Turkish culture, films, and television programs. Its support for Kashmiri dissidents forms part of this broader strategy.

India faces a complex challenge that should not be approached tentatively. India's security remains solely its concern. The country cannot afford to be perceived as a soft state that adversaries can exploit under the guise of international diplomacy.