How BJP's Cash Transfer Strategy to Women Voters Secured Bihar Election Victory

The extraordinary and unprecedented victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar has undoubtedly left the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress alliance stunned and devastated. This election was widely expected to favor the Mahagathbandhan due to 20 years of anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, yet they suffered a crushing defeat.

Unlike the 2020 assembly elections, the RJD-Congress alliance appeared better organized this time. Rahul Gandhi conducted a two-week 'Vote Adhikar Yatra' that notably energized Congress workers across the state. Following Rahul's initiative, RJD's Tejashwi Yadav embarked on his own campaign journey. Both leaders seemed to have developed stronger strategies to challenge the Nitish-Modi partnership over the past five years. Despite these efforts, they failed spectacularly.

Perhaps the Congress's hesitation to position Tejashwi as the Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial candidate sent confusing signals to voters, suggesting internal conflict between the alliance's main parties. This perception likely undermined voter confidence in their ability to govern effectively together. The BJP, led by Modi, strategically targeted the Mahagathbandhan's vulnerabilities. Modi consistently reminded Bihar's electorate that Tejashwi's leadership would bring back lawlessness. Though the RJD adopted a cautious approach, keeping Lalu Yadav away from campaign posters and rallies, voters apparently remained convinced by Modi's warnings, remembering the 'Katta Raj' (gun rule) and 'Jungle Raj' from Lalu's tenure.

This isn't the first instance where political analysts have significantly misjudged electoral outcomes. The election was anticipated to be an extremely close contest, difficult to predict. While some forecasters did project an NDA victory, the overwhelming margin has astonished everyone.

The pattern began with Haryana, where the BJP's unexpected victory surprised observers. The Congress was criticized for failing to secure what appeared to be a certain win. A similar scenario unfolded in Maharashtra, which had previously delivered a significant setback to the NDA in parliamentary elections just months earlier. There too, the opposition alliance faced a decisive defeat as the NDA claimed nearly three-quarters of available seats. The opposition remained bewildered by these outcomes. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh witnessed comparable results that shocked both the opposition and the nation.

What explains this trend? It appears the ruling BJP has discovered a winning electoral formula that the opposition cannot counter: pre-election cash transfers targeting women voters.

This strategy was first tested in Madhya Pradesh, where the Shiv Raj Singh Chouhan government introduced the Ladli Behna Yojana, transferring Rs 1,500 to women's accounts shortly before elections. Although the Election Commission could have intervened to ensure electoral fairness, it didn't take action.

In Maharashtra, where the 'Mahayuti' had performed poorly in parliamentary elections, the situation reversed dramatically within six months. The NDA's overwhelming victory astonished both the Maha Vikas Aghadi and political commentators. The Ladki Bahin Yojana, which provided ₹2,500 to women, proved decisive. This same approach was successfully implemented in Bihar as well.

Six months ago, many believed that strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the JD(U) government might destabilize Bihar's political landscape, with some suggesting Nitish Kumar's departure was imminent. However, Kumar, not typically known for distributing freebies, implemented unprecedented welfare measures during this election. To his credit, his government has launched numerous initiatives since 2005 that have significantly empowered women. But the Rs 10,000 cash transfer program announced immediately before elections was particularly influential. This was complemented by promises of 125 free electricity units and increasing pensions from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan recognized the potential impact of the NDA's ₹10,000 cash transfer scheme on their electoral prospects. To counter this, they promised to deposit Rs 30,000 in women's accounts by January if elected. However, voters seemingly trusted Nitish more than Tejashwi—immediate financial benefits proved more compelling than future promises.

Additionally, the NDA implemented a more effective caste strategy in this election. Learning from their missteps in the 2020 assembly election, they successfully incorporated Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Manch (RLM). These two parties had collectively secured approximately 7% of votes in the 2020 election. Although Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) left the NDA to join the Mahagathbandhan, Chirag and Upendra's contributions adequately compensated for this loss. Some political observers had questioned the level of trust between the BJP, JD(U), and LJP following the 2020 assembly elections, but these concerns proved unfounded. Despite incorporating the VIP and the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP), the Mahagathbandhan's caste calculations couldn't match the NDA's strategy. These factors collectively disadvantaged the RJD-Congress alliance.

The Bihar election results have unquestionably shaken opposition confidence. The optimism generated by the BJP's relatively weak performance in last year's Lok Sabha election has now dissipated. The opposition must thoroughly reconsider their approach and examine why they failed so dramatically to maintain the momentum from 2024, contrary to all expectations.

The views expressed are the personal opinions of the author, who co-founded SatyaHindi and authored 'Reclaiming Bharat' and 'Hindu Rashtra'.