Bihar Election 2025: How BJP-JDU Secured Historic Victory Through Unprecedented Caste Matrix Shift

New Delhi:

The BJP and Janata Dal United are heading toward a commanding victory over opposition forces in Bihar, substantially outperforming Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress by more than 160 seats.

A fundamental pillar of this success appears to be their strong performance among Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), Other Backward Castes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes, and Scheduled Tribes. Crucially, another significant factor has been the apparent shift of the traditionally opposition-aligned Muslim and Yadav communities toward the NDA alliance.

Prior to Friday's vote counting, two leading exit polls - Axis My India and Matrize - had predicted the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would capture the majority of votes from backward and scheduled communities, while the Mahagathbandhan would secure most Muslim votes.

According to Axis My India projections, the NDA would receive 49 percent support from SC communities, 56 percent from STs, 58 percent from EBCs, and 63 percent from OBCs. Matrize similarly forecast 51 percent of OBC voters and 49 percent of SC voters supporting the NDA.

Both polls had anticipated 78 percent of Muslim votes going to the Mahagathbandhan.

As vote counting progressed, results confirmed the caste matrix indeed favored the NDA coalition.

The Kurmi and Koeri communities, from which Chief Minister Nitish Kumar originates, predictably supported the NDA by a margin of 65.7 percent to 31.9 percent.

The Nishad (or Mallah) community, representing 2.6 percent of Bihar's population and a demographic the opposition had hoped to attract through VIP leader Mukesh Sahani, apparently rejected those advances, with over 60 percent voting for NDA candidates.

The Kushwaha community also demonstrated overwhelming support for the NDA, which was leading in 41 constituencies where this community holds significant influence. In contrast, the opposition led in just nine, marking a substantial decline of 19 seats compared to the previous election.

Paswan community votes likewise shifted away from the Mahagathbandhan, highlighting Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party's impressive performance; the LJP was allocated 28 seats - despite requesting 40 - and appears set to win 22 of them. The NDA secured nearly 82 percent of these votes.

Both EBC and OBC votes followed a similar pattern. The NDA was positioned to receive over 63 percent of OBC votes and 74 percent from SCs, surpassing even the most optimistic predictions.

Contrary to expectations, the Muslim and Yadav vote matrix did not favor the Mahagathbandhan.

In fact, the NDA may ultimately secure over 65 percent of these traditionally opposition-aligned votes.

This dramatic shift is perhaps best illustrated by the close contest in Raghopur, an RJD stronghold under Lalu Yadav's influence, which has consistently elected either him, his wife Rabri Devi, or son Tejashwi Yadav in nearly every election since 1995. The sole exception was 2010, when Satish Kumar defeated Rabri Devi.

The scale of the BJP-JDU victory indicates support extended beyond these specific communities. Particularly noteworthy was the Muslim vote, which historically backed Lalu Yadav and the RJD, but apparently pivoted toward Nitish Kumar and the BJP, despite Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM being in contention. This contradicted Matrize's projection that the RJD would capture 78 percent of Muslim votes.

The Caste Factor in Bihar remains a critical electoral determinant, especially following the October 2023 survey that confirmed over 60 percent of the state's population of more than 13 crore comes from marginalized communities, with nearly 85 percent belonging to Backward Classes, Extremely Backward Classes, Scheduled Classes or Scheduled Tribes.

Specifically, approximately 36 percent were identified as extremely backward class, 27.1 percent as backward class, 19.7 percent as Scheduled Caste, and 1.7 percent as Scheduled Tribe. The general category, including upper castes, represented 15.5 percent.

Recognition of these demographics was evident in candidate selection processes, with political analysts noting that ticket distribution followed 'hard-nosed caste arithmetic'.

Pre-election analysis revealed both coalitions allocated tickets to candidates from various castes and communities in roughly equal proportions, though the Mahagathbandhan appeared to focus more on maximizing their appeal among the Yadav community.