Bihar Exit Polls 2023: Axis My India Predicts Close Contest While 11 Others Show NDA Victory

NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls indicates NDA securing 146 seats while Mahagathbandhan expected to win 92 seats.

In New Delhi, a surprising contrast has emerged from Axis My India's exit poll, which predicts the ruling NDA might potentially miss the majority mark in Bihar.

According to this particular pollster, NDA is projected to secure between 121 and 140 seats, while Mahagathbandhan could obtain 98-118 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is predicted to win between zero and two seats.

With 122 being the majority threshold in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, the lower projection for NDA places them just one seat short of a clear majority. Conversely, Mahagathbandhan, primarily consisting of RJD and Congress, could reach up to 118 seats, bringing them remarkably close to forming a government.

Perhaps most concerning for NDA are the vote share forecasts, with Axis My India projecting a mere two percentage points difference - 43% for NDA versus 41% for Mahagathbandhan.

If these numbers hold true on counting day this Friday, the Bihar election appears significantly more competitive than indicated by 11 other exit polls. These alternative pollsters uniformly predict NDA achieving a clear majority, with Vote Vibe offering the most conservative estimate of 125 seats. On the optimistic end, CNX predicts NDA could secure between 150 and 170 seats, exceeding even the two-thirds majority threshold.

The NDTV Poll of Exit Polls, which aggregates multiple surveys, projects 146 seats for NDA, 92 for Mahagathbandhan, and a single seat for Jan Suraaj Party.

Important caveat: Exit polls frequently prove inaccurate.

Despite the anticipated defeat for Mahagathbandhan, the AxisMyIndia poll suggests RJD may emerge as the single-largest party, repeating its 2020 performance when it won 75 seats. This time, RJD is projected to secure between 67 and 76 seats.

JDU is forecast to be the second most successful party with 56-62 seats, followed by BJP with 50-56 seats, and Congress with 17-21 seats.

Should these projections materialize, JDU would improve upon its 2020 tally of 43 seats, despite Nitish Kumar's health concerns and his nearly two-decade tenure as chief minister. Conversely, BJP would experience a significant decline from its previous 74 seats.

Such results would effectively silence speculation about BJP sidelining Kumar to install their own party member as chief minister.

Other forecasters like Vote Vibe and CNX released their predictions on Wednesday, both indicating a decisive NDA majority.

Vote Vibe projects NDA winning 125-145 seats, Mahagathbandhan securing 95-115, and Jan Suraaj obtaining between zero and two seats. CNX offers an even more favorable outlook for NDA, predicting 150-170 seats, while projecting 70-90 seats for Mahagathbandhan and 0-2 for Jan Suraaj.