Bihar Exit Poll Analysis: Women Support NDA While Youth Back Mahagathbandhan

According to all exit polls conducted so far, the NDA is projected to secure a majority in the Bihar assembly elections, though the Mahagathbandhan appears to have gained more support from younger voters. Axis My India's exit poll predicts the NDA will win 121-140 seats, aligning with other surveys that indicate a clear advantage for the Nitish Kumar-led alliance. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 98-118 seats, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party may win up to two seats. The vote share distribution shows 43% for NDA, 41% for Mahagathbandhan, and 4% for JSP.

Axis My India has provided detailed voting patterns based on caste, age, and gender demographics. Their data indicates that the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan has maintained its core Muslim-Yadav voter base, while women voters have predominantly supported the NDA.

However, it's important to note that exit polls often prove inaccurate when final results are announced.

In the age-based analysis, first-time voters showed stronger preference for the Mahagathbandhan, suggesting greater trust in the Tejashwi Yadav-Rahul Gandhi leadership among the youth. Among voters aged 18-19, 46% supported the Opposition alliance, while 44% of those in the 20-29 age bracket did the same. The NDA is projected to secure only 37% in these younger demographics.

The voting pattern shifts significantly with increasing age. In the 30-39 age group, the NDA holds a slight advantage with 43% compared to Mahagathbandhan's 42%. This trend continues upward for the NDA, reaching 51% support among voters aged 70 and above.

Gender-based data reveals interesting patterns as well. Women voters favored the NDA (45%) over the Mahagathbandhan (40%), while male voters showed the opposite preference, with 42% supporting the Mahagathbandhan and 41% backing the NDA. Women constitute a significant voter base for Nitish Kumar, who serves as the NDA's chief ministerial candidate. His administration has implemented popular women-focused initiatives, including financial assistance of Rs 10,000 each to 75 lakh women.

Regarding employment demographics, the Mahagathbandhan received substantial support from unemployed voters (49%) and students (48%), compared to the NDA's 34% and 33% respectively. The NDA, meanwhile, performed better among self-employed individuals (49%) and housewives (48%), versus 36% and 37% for the Mahagathbandhan.

The caste-based voting patterns show the Mahagathbandhan maintained its stronghold among its traditional Muslim-Yadav supporters, areas where the NDA struggled considerably. Among Yadav voters, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure 90% compared to the NDA's mere 6%. Similarly, in the Muslim community, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to win 79% support versus the NDA's 6%. However, the Mahagathbandhan failed to achieve significant support among other subcaste groups.

The NDA demonstrated considerably stronger performance among SC, ST, EBC, and OBC groups. Additionally, subcastes including Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars, and General castes are projected to favor the NDA by significant margins.