Bihar Exit Polls: Caste Demographics Favor BJP-Led Alliance According to Recent Data

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (L) and opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav (R)

New Delhi:

According to exit poll data released Tuesday evening, Bihar's OBC and Scheduled Caste communities have predominantly voted for the ruling alliance, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United.

An exit poll conducted by Matrize revealed that 51 percent of OBC voters and 49 percent of SC voters chose Nitish Kumar and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance.

In contrast, a remarkable 78 percent of Muslim voters supported the opposition Mahagathbandhan, which is led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Tejashwi Yadav, and includes the Congress.

A consolidated poll of exit polls released this evening – after voting concluded in the second and final phase of the election – predicted a significant victory for the ruling alliance; the numbers indicated the NDA would secure 147 of the state's 243 seats while the Mahagathbandhan would decline to 90, which is 20 fewer than their previous result.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj, making its highly anticipated electoral debut, is expected to perform poorly with only one seat, though some exit polls, including DV Research and P-Marq, suggested he might win as many as four.

Caste was inevitably going to be a crucial factor, especially after the October 2023 survey confirmed that over 60 percent of the state's more than 13 crore population belongs to marginalized communities and nearly 85 percent are from backward or extremely backward classes or Scheduled Classes or Tribes.

Specifically, the survey found that approximately 36 percent were from extremely backward classes, 27.1 percent from backward classes, 19.7 percent from Scheduled Castes, and 1.7 percent from Scheduled Tribes. The general category, including so-called upper castes, constituted 15.5 percent.

Data from a state-wide caste survey conducted before the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Recognition of these demographic figures was evident when each political coalition discussed candidates, with political analysts noting that ticket distribution was based on 'hard-nosed caste arithmetic'.

Pre-election analysis of those candidates revealed that each side essentially matched the other in allocating tickets to politicians from various castes and communities, although the Mahagathbandhan focused more on maximizing representation among the Yadav community.

The opposition alliance provided 67 tickets to individuals from party leader Lalu Yadav's community, while the NDA selected only 19 Yadav candidates. Conversely, Nitish Kumar, who belongs to the Kurmi community, ensured 14 tickets went to that section, while the opposition allocated only seven.