Bihar Election 2024: How Caste Calculations Drive NDA and Mahagathbandhan Ticket Distribution

The Bihar assembly election is scheduled to take place in two phases.

Patna:

As Bihar approaches a decisive electoral contest, the major political coalitions—the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—have quietly abandoned their grand slogans in favor of pragmatic caste calculations. An analysis of ticket distribution reveals both alliances retreating to their core vote banks, prioritizing electoral viability over inclusive representation.

Rhetoric versus Reality

The Mahagathbandhan's progressive motto "Jiski Jitni Sankhya Bhaari, Uski Utni Hissedaari" (representation proportional to population) and the NDA's inclusive "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vishwas" are notably absent from their candidate selection strategies. Instead, both coalitions have returned to their traditional support bases, focusing on consolidation rather than expansion.

NDA Strategy: Upper Caste and NYOBC Focus

The BJP has heavily emphasized upper caste representation, allocating 21 percent of tickets to Rajputs and 16 percent to Bhumihars—significantly exceeding their estimated population share of approximately 3 percent each. Muslim candidates are virtually absent, while Yadavs, a core MGB constituency, receive just 6 percent of BJP tickets.

JD(U), meanwhile, has positioned itself as the representative of non-Yadav OBCs and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). With Nitish Kumar's Kurmi background, the party has strengthened the Luv-Kush alliance by allocating 12 percent of tickets to Kurmis and 13 percent to Koeri/Kushwahas. EBCs have received 19 percent of JD(U) nominations, reflecting a strategic effort to consolidate backward communities concerned about Yadav dominance.

Muslim representation across the NDA remains minimal—just 2 percent of seats—despite Muslims constituting approximately 18 percent of Bihar's population. The BJP maintains its policy of not fielding Muslim candidates in the state.

MGB Approach: M-Y Foundation with Strategic Adjustments

The RJD has reinforced its Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base, with Yadavs receiving 37 percent of tickets—more than double their 14 percent population share—and Muslims 13 percent. Together, half of RJD's candidates come from the M-Y bloc.

To counter perceptions of "Yadav Raj," the RJD has made tactical adjustments: upper caste representation has decreased to 8 percent, while Kushwaha and EBC candidates have each received 10 percent of tickets.

The Congress has attempted to broaden the alliance's appeal by fielding 34 percent upper caste and 15 percent NYOBC/EBC candidates, aiming to attract additional voter segments and balance the MGB's caste portfolio.

SC-ST Outreach and Lessons from 2020

Of the 40 seats reserved for SC-ST communities, the NDA has fielded one candidate and MGB three in general category seats to appeal to these voters. In 2020, voting patterns showed 60 percent of upper castes, 50 percent of NYOBC/EBCs and STs supporting NDA, while 75 percent of Muslims and Yadavs backed MGB. SC voters were divided, with 45 percent supporting NDA.

Electoral Viability Over Proportional Representation

The data reveals the discrepancy between slogans and reality for both alliances. MGB's promise of proportional representation falls short as Yadavs receive 26 percent of alliance seats against their 14 percent population share, while Muslims remain underrepresented at 12 percent. NDA's "Sabka Vishwas" claim appears hollow with Muslim representation at a nominal 2 percent.

Both alliances are focusing on consolidating their core supporters—upper castes and NYOBCs for NDA, Muslims and Yadavs for MGB—rather than pursuing swing voters or building broader coalitions. This strategy reflects lessons from 2020, when NDA secured victory despite a modest vote share of 37 percent, narrowly defeating MGB by approximately 12,000 votes.

Tactical Changes Since 2020

The NDA has increased ticket allocation for Rajputs (+8), Bhumihars (+5), Banias (+7), and Kushwahas—seeking to reassure communities that shifted toward MGB in the 2023 general elections. It has reduced tickets for Yadavs (-17) and Muslims (-6).

MGB has responded by increasing tickets for Kurmis (+4), Koeris/Kushwahas (+8), and EBCs (+16), attempting to erode NDA's support base. The appointment of Mukesh Sahani as Deputy CM forms part of this outreach strategy. Simultaneously, MGB has slightly reduced tickets for Muslims and Yadavs (-3 each) to counter its M-Y-centric image and decreased upper caste and Bania representation (-16).

No Transformative Social Engineering Yet

Unlike Akhilesh Yadav's PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) coalition in Uttar Pradesh, which helped SP challenge BJP in 2024, Bihar's MGB has not implemented a comprehensive social engineering project. While EBC and Kushwaha representation has increased, these changes remain tactical rather than strategic.

Comfort Zones Over Coalition-Building

As the campaign intensifies, both alliances have opted to secure their core supporters rather than pursue swing voters. Symbolic attempts to penetrate each other's vote banks exist, but the overall strategy reflects a retreat to familiar territory. Whether this proves electorally advantageous or strategically limited will only become apparent when votes are counted. For now, the slogans persist—displayed on campaign materials and repeated at rallies—even as ticket distribution tells a distinctly different story.