Nitish Kumar: Bihar's Enduring X-Factor in the 2024 Elections

As Bihar's election dates have been announced, political discussions are intensifying across the state. The central question permeating conversations from local teashops to television panels remains: Does Nitish Kumar continue to be the decisive X-factor in Bihar's electoral outcomes? The answer appears nuanced rather than straightforward.

Nitish Kumar's political journey showcases an exceptional record few politicians can rival. He has consistently delivered victory to whichever alliance he joins—the BJP in 2005 and 2019, the RJD in 2015, and returning to the BJP in 2020. This consistent success has established him as Bihar's premier kingmaker who has effectively ruled as Chief Minister for nearly two decades, wielding enough influence to reshape electoral mathematics in favor of his chosen allies.

His political strength derives from a meticulously cultivated support base comprising Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, 26%), Mahadalits, and women voters. These demographics have generally remained loyal through his various political shifts, attracted by his relatively untarnished reputation and development-focused governance approach.

Kumar's governance model distinctly prioritizes welfare initiatives, especially focusing on women's empowerment and marginalized communities. Signature programs such as Jeevika Didi, bicycle distribution for schoolgirls, and his controversial prohibition policy have become defining elements of his political legacy.

He implemented 20% reservation for EBCs in local governance bodies and elevated women's representation in panchayats to 50%—initiatives that significantly expanded political participation among previously underrepresented groups.

In what many consider his final political chapter, Nitish has liberally expanded the state budget to launch numerous schemes targeting five key electoral demographics: women, youth, senior citizens, farmers, and laborers. He has increased pensions for the elderly and widows, raised salaries for Anganwadi workers and sanitation staff, provided Rs. 5,000 to 16 lakh laborers, distributed Rs. 10,000 to 1.21 crore women as business seed capital, and established an unemployment allowance of Rs. 1,000 for youth.

This comprehensive approach appears designed to solidify his legacy while securing one final electoral victory to cement his position in Bihar's political history.

However, recent trends reveal a gradual decline in his political standing. Nitish's approval ratings as preferred Chief Minister have fallen dramatically from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in recent surveys by C-Voter and VoteVibe. His party has experienced a similar downward trajectory, dropping from 115 seats in 2010 to merely 43 in 2020, with vote share declining from 22.6% to 15.7% during this period.

This downward trend reflects what political analysts term "natural fatigue"—the inevitable weariness that develops when a leader has dominated the political landscape for an extended period. At 74 years old and reportedly facing health challenges, age factors have also become relevant. His political opportunism has additionally damaged his carefully cultivated public image.

Over the past decade, Nitish has twice aligned with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and twice returned to the NDA alliance in what supporters euphemistically describe as "gharwapsi." These frequent realignments have raised questions about his political principles and reinforced perceptions of power-driven maneuvering rather than ideology-based decision-making.

Questions surrounding his health and age further complicate matters, with some suggesting that maintaining him as the NDA's face might actually harm rather than help their electoral prospects. Nevertheless, the BJP continues to project him as their chief ministerial candidate, recognizing that his 12-15% vote share could prove decisive in a closely contested election.

Despite diminishing numbers, Nitish Kumar remains essential to the NDA's Bihar strategy. The BJP lacks an alternative leadership figure who can match his appeal among EBCs and other crucial voting blocs. Without Nitish positioned as the prospective chief minister, there exists a genuine risk that EBCs may not support the BJP with the same enthusiasm.

Essentially, the BJP is leveraging the JD(U)'s influence, aware that without Nitish's appeal, their path to power becomes significantly more challenging.

Some analysts contend that media narratives have unfairly characterized Nitish as weakened. The JD(U)'s decline to 43 seats in 2020, they argue, primarily resulted from Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) splitting votes. Without that interference, the party would likely have secured approximately 70-plus seats.

Furthermore, during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) demonstrated a better success rate than the NDA overall, winning 12 out of 16 contested seats compared to the BJP's 12 out of 17. Had Nitish not switched allegiances when he did, the NDA might have completely lost those elections.

Emerging leaders like Tejashwi Yadav present formidable challenges to Nitish's dominance. However, the veteran politician's advantage lies in his established caste coalitions, development track record, and administrative experience, which together neutralize much of the threat posed by younger challengers.

Nitish's greatest vulnerability remains his inability to significantly industrialize Bihar and generate employment at scale. The persistent outmigration of Bihar's youth seeking jobs elsewhere represents perhaps the most significant criticism of his extended tenure.

Popularity surveys confirm that his support among young voters has declined sharply, though he maintains considerable backing among those over thirty-five and senior citizens.

The JD(U)'s ability to improve upon its 2020 performance depends on effective vote transfer between NDA partners. In 2020, while 75% of JD(U) supporters backed BJP candidates, only 55% of BJP supporters reciprocated this support for JD(U) candidates. Approximately 20% of BJP supporters instead backed the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

This time, Jan Suraj could potentially play a similar role. Both the JD(U) and BJP are competing to win more seats to claim the chief ministerial position after elections, creating a trust deficit between these key alliance partners.

Nitish Kumar aims to exceed the 50-seat threshold by leveraging his welfare schemes and capitalizing on what he perceives as the opposition's strategic error in focusing on issues like SIR and "Vote Chori" rather than unemployment and corruption. For the NDA to secure victory, political observers agree that Nitish must win at least 50 seats.

Poll strategist Prashant Kishor has predicted Nitish will secure only 25 seats and will not become chief minister. Yet, the electoral mathematics make Nitish's performance critical. With the BJP and its allies contesting approximately 143 seats, it becomes virtually impossible for the NDA to win without Nitish (likely contesting around 100 seats) delivering his share of victories.

Whether Nitish Kumar remains Bihar's X-factor defies a simple answer. His brand value has certainly depreciated, his party has weakened, and political fatigue has become evident. Nevertheless, he retains crucial vote banks, a relatively untarnished image, and the ability to influence outcomes in a fragmented electoral landscape.

Alongside women voters and the wild card of Prashant Kishor's political intervention, Nitish Kumar remains one of three key factors that will determine Bihar's election results.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author