INDIA Bloc's Bihar Strategy: Can the 'Vote Chori' Campaign Translate to Assembly Election Success?

Patna:

The opposition INDIA bloc, spearheaded by the RJD-Congress alliance, is set to directly challenge the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar's upcoming Assembly elections after running an energetic 'vote chori' campaign that alleged BJP manipulation in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

On Monday, the Election Commission announced the Bihar polls would take place in two phases on November 6 and 11, with vote counting scheduled for November 14.

Below is a comprehensive SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of the INDIA bloc led by the RJD-Congress partnership.

STRENGTHS

The RJD commands a robust and dedicated Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote base, constituting approximately 30 percent of Bihar's total electorate.

With RJD founder Lalu Prasad stepping back, his son Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the party's clear leader. Tejashwi, who previously served as deputy chief minister, has gained considerable popularity among young voters across the state.

The Congress party's Voter Adhikar Yatra, led by Rahul Gandhi, has successfully revitalized party workers throughout Bihar.

WEAKNESSES

The RJD, which forms the largest component of the INDIA bloc, remains largely under the control of Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi Yadav, and their immediate family members. Many of them are embroiled in legal complications, including the land-for-jobs scandal currently under ED investigation.

Despite Tejashwi's acceptance among party members, disruptions caused by siblings like Tej Pratap Yadav and other family members often force Tejashwi to divert his attention from party management and alliance coordination to family issues.

OPPORTUNITIES

With Tejashwi's youthful leadership, the INDIA bloc has the potential for a complete image transformation. He has effectively positioned himself as a leader concerned with Bihar's urgent employment needs while also highlighting migration issues and the state's law and order situation.

Although the NDA claims credit for the caste survey conducted by the state government two years ago, the RJD was part of the ruling coalition when quotas were increased for disadvantaged communities. This association with progressive policies aligns with the party's "Mandal" credentials and could yield electoral benefits.

Alliances with ideologically aligned parties such as Congress and CPI(ML) Liberation, coupled with Nitish Kumar's sudden return to the NDA, could help the RJD and its partners secure the entire Muslim vote bloc.

THREATS

After remaining out of power for an extended period, the INDIA bloc faces significant challenges in managing ambitious leaders within the party and maintaining alliance cohesion.