India Faces Highest Risk of Chikungunya: 51 Lakh People Potentially Affected Annually, Global Study Reveals

There are no specific treatments available for this viral mosquito-borne infection (Representational)

New Delhi:

According to a recent global modeling study published in the BMJ Global Health, India could face the most significant long-term impacts of chikungunya, with approximately 51 lakh people potentially at risk annually from this mosquito-borne disease.

The research indicates that Brazil and Indonesia might rank as the second and third most affected nations respectively, with India and Brazil together accounting for 48 percent of the global impact on healthcare systems and individuals.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who led the study, highlight that chronic health impacts represent the greatest concern, with existing evidence suggesting approximately 50 percent of affected individuals may struggle with long-term disability.

The study estimates that globally, over 1.40 crore people could be at risk of chikungunya infection annually in the long term.

"The potential spread of vectors carrying viruses like chikungunya won't wait for us to complete years of research, so it's been critically important that our model is shared and implemented in real time to help public health professionals manage current cases and prepare for future outbreaks," explained co-author Sushant Sahastrabuddhe, associate director general of innovation, initiatives, and enterprise development at the International Vaccine Institute, South Korea.

Chikungunya is transmitted through bites from 'Aedes aegypti' and 'Aedes albopictus' mosquitoes, commonly known as yellow fever and tiger mosquitoes. Symptoms typically include high fever and severe joint pain, with approximately 50 percent of patients reportedly suffering from long-term joint pain and disability.

While specific treatments for this viral infection remain unavailable, two preventive vaccines have received approval for use in certain countries, including the United States.

This pioneering study predicts chikungunya burden by integrating existing infection data with factors influencing infection likelihood. The authors note that previous estimates based on surveillance and outbreak reports likely underestimated the true impact.

The research findings could prove valuable for prioritizing regions and targeting vulnerable age demographics—particularly children under 10 and adults over 80—for chikungunya vaccine implementation, according to the research team.

The researchers estimated "global chikungunya burden annually of 14.4 million (1.44 crore) infections" with "India and Brazil accounting for 48 percent of the global burden."

"The chronic phase represents 54 percent of chikungunya burden, with relatively higher impact among the 40-60-year-old population, while mortality disproportionately affects children under 10 and adults over 80," the team added.

Lead researcher Hyolim Kang, also a research fellow at Nagasaki University, stated, "It's been widely assumed that mosquitoes carrying chikungunya would be limited to subtropical or tropical continents, but our analysis reveals that the risk extends significantly beyond these regions."

"Preventing the spread of this disease is crucial for everyone. With no specific antiviral therapies available for chikungunya, treatment relies entirely on supportive care. Infections are not only extremely painful, but even the healthiest individuals can be infected and left with lifelong disability," Kang emphasized.