NDA To Finalise Bihar Seats After Poll Dates Come, To Curb Desertions

NDA To Finalise Bihar Seats After Poll Dates Come, To Curb Desertions

BJP officials indicate that Chirag Paswan remains loyal to PM Narendra Modi and will not abandon the NDA alliance

New Delhi:

Sources within the BJP reveal that the NDA leadership will make final decisions on seat-sharing arrangements among alliance partners only after the Election Commission announces the Bihar election schedule. This tactical approach aims to prevent potential candidates from defecting to other parties if they are denied tickets.

Reports suggest that the Election Commission may release the poll dates in early October. The current Assembly's term concludes on November 22, by which time the electoral process must be completed.

According to BJP insiders, while preliminary discussions among NDA allies are underway, definitive seat-sharing decisions will be delayed until the election schedule is official.

BJP sources explain this as a calculated strategy. Many political aspirants tend to switch allegiances at the last moment if denied candidacy. A delayed announcement, they believe, could effectively minimize such defections.

Sources indicate that smaller parties within the NDA coalition are aggressively negotiating for favorable seat allocations.

Chirag Paswan's Assertive Stance

Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan has reportedly demanded 40 seats following his party's perfect performance in the general election last year, winning all five contested seats. Mr. Paswan has been strategically positioning himself for months, with supporters even promoting him as a potential Chief Minister. While he publicly acknowledges Nitish Kumar as the NDA's Chief Ministerial candidate, his critical comments about the current administration have raised concerns. The historical tensions between Nitish Kumar and both Chirag Paswan and his late father Ram Vilas Paswan remain significant factors.

BJP leaders maintain that Mr. Paswan's loyalty to Prime Minister Narendra Modi ensures his continued NDA membership, though the LJP (Ram Vilas) leader has consistently stated he won't compromise on seat allocation. BJP sources suggest this firm negotiating position is politically necessary for Paswan to satisfy his supporters.

BJP's Strategic Balancing

While Paswan seeks over 40 seats, Nitish Kumar's JDU wishes to limit his allocation to no more than 20. However, BJP leaders recognize Paswan's crucial importance to the coalition. In the 2020 Assembly elections, when Chirag Paswan's then-undivided party contested independently across 135 seats, they secured only one seat but significantly divided votes to JDU's detriment. The BJP aims to avoid a similar scenario this time.

Given Paswan's party won five Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general election, mathematical calculations suggest he should receive at least 30 Assembly seats. However, final determinations will likely await the announcement of election dates. BJP sources indicate that Chirag Paswan's "sentiments would be considered."

NDA's Electoral Arithmetic

According to BJP sources, the basic seat-sharing formula is largely established. Of Bihar's 243 Assembly constituencies, the two major NDA partners—JDU and BJP—will each contest over 100 seats. JDU may receive slightly more seats to reinforce its position as the senior alliance partner.

A similar arrangement existed in the 2020 elections, though BJP achieved better results, winning 74 of its 110 contested seats while JDU secured only 43 victories despite contesting 115 seats.

Several changes have occurred in the political landscape: Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party, which contested 13 seats previously as an NDA member, has joined the Opposition. Upendra Kushwaha's Rastriya Lok Morcha contested the 2020 elections alongside Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. Former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM remains within the NDA fold. If BJP and JDU each contest approximately 100 seats, the remaining three allies must divide roughly 40 seats among themselves, requiring Chirag Paswan to adjust his expectations. The key question remains: to what extent?