Karnataka's Political Power Transition: Understanding the Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar Arrangement and Congress High Command's Role

A senior journalist observed that "Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar meeting each other over breakfast garnered as much media attention as a Putin-Zelensky meeting," while watching the news coverage unfold.

Has the power struggle within Congress Karnataka been resolved? Is there certainty about whether Siddaramaiah will serve a complete five-year term or eventually step aside for DK Shivakumar in the coming months? The answer to both questions remains negative.

The highly publicized idli and dosa breakfast between the Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister was clearly orchestrated to correct the perception of a Congress party in disarray.

Their meeting occurred at the High Command's direction, with instructions to demonstrate unity, particularly as the BJP threatens to introduce a no-confidence motion in the Karnataka assembly session beginning December 8.

With the symbolic gesture of unity over idli and vada now complete, the next phase of negotiations will happen over Karnataka's traditional Ragi Mudde or Delhi's famous Chole Kulche. Both leaders have delegated the resolution to the high command.

What happens next? Siddaramaiah may eventually need to accept a power transition, but the questions of successor and timing remain. He reportedly seeks to complete his term. Meanwhile, DK Shivakumar has firmly refused to back down, though he cannot risk causing an abrupt party split and must ensure a smooth transition – he'll need to wait, albeit reluctantly.

The agreement reached between these two leaders in 2023, following Congress's dramatic victory and Siddaramaiah's appointment as Chief Minister, remains shrouded in mystery.

What's evident now is that some arrangement was made to appease DK Shivakumar, who conceded the Chief Minister position and accepted the deputy role. Now it falls to the high command – Rahul Gandhi – to implement a transition plan, if not ensure smooth governmental operations and eliminate uncertainty.

According to discussions circulating among Congress insiders, the emerging understanding encompasses four key elements. A definitive transition of power to DKS before 2027, with Siddaramaiah relinquishing the chief ministership perhaps after the State budget in February/March 2026 or slightly later, two years before the 2028 Assembly elections. This timeline would allow Siddaramaiah to claim the record for longest-serving CM of the state – currently held by the late legendary Congress leader D Devaraj Urs.

Under this arrangement, Shivakumar would maintain his positions as the sole Deputy Chief Minister and State Congress president until the transition. No cabinet reshuffles or midterm changes would occur. Siddaramaiah's loyalists would receive accommodation under DKS. Most crucially, Siddaramaiah would support a smooth transition. While he may resist initially, sources suggest he would likely concede if Rahul Gandhi decisively intervenes.

Why might DKS agree to wait longer? Despite his ambitions, DKS is reportedly pragmatic about the current political arithmetic. He lacks sufficient support to unseat Siddaramaiah immediately. Siddaramaiah remains the more influential mass leader in the state. A sudden attempt to depose the CM could fracture the party and alienate key communities. Most significantly, DKS would compromise his most valuable asset – his reputation as a steadfast party loyalist who maintains unity. A messy power grab would leave both leaders in politically vulnerable positions. He simply must secure Siddaramaiah's cooperation.

For Siddaramaiah, this arrangement also offers clear benefits. He has repeatedly indicated plans to retire by 2028, though politicians rarely relinquish power voluntarily. Nevertheless, he recognizes the inevitability of transition at some point.

A smooth handover helps cement his legacy as a unifying leader. Orchestrating an orderly transition would allow him to depart as Karnataka's preeminent Congress figure, preserving his political influence. Importantly, he could secure positions for his loyalists and potentially his own political heir or heirs.

However, a single day can transform political landscapes, and months could represent an eternity! Will DKS fully trust Siddaramaiah to honor any timeline? Will the party publicly announce the agreement or maintain it informally? A decision must be made and adhered to, as instability in its most powerful state would prove disastrous for Congress.

Numerous caste sensitivities require careful navigation by Congress, and let's remember there are 137 Congress MLAs who may generally align with the high command but cannot be taken for granted. Karnataka's political future will develop over numerous additional meals and meetings between Bengaluru and New Delhi. This narrative is far from concluded!

(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author