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As Bilawal Bhutto Threatens War Over Indus Pact, How India Move Impacts Pak

Former Pakistan foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has warned that India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could lead to war, calling the move "illegal and provocative."
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India's Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: Pakistan Warns of Severe Consequences
New Delhi:
Former Pakistan foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has issued a stark warning that India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could potentially trigger a conflict, describing the action as "illegal and provocative." These comments follow approximately two months after New Delhi's decision to halt the critical water-sharing agreement.
"Pakistan desires peace, but if water resources are weaponized, we will be compelled to respond, and we maintain the capability to defeat India as we have in previous confrontations," the PPP chairman stated during Monday's National Assembly budget session.
Bilawal Bhutto alleged that India has contravened international regulations by unilaterally suspending the 1960 treaty following the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam. "India faces two alternatives: equitable water distribution, or Pakistan will claim water from all six rivers," he cautioned.
The Indus Waters Treaty, established in 1960 with World Bank mediation, regulates water allocation from six rivers between India and Pakistan.
With Home Minister Amit Shah indicating the treaty will "never be restored," Pakistan faces potentially devastating repercussions across multiple sectors.
Agricultural Vulnerability
Pakistan's agricultural sector relies almost entirely on the Indus River system. The western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—supply over 80 percent of the country's irrigation. Without IWT protections, India could restrict water flow or alter timing, directly threatening food security.
Major crops including wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane could experience significant yield reductions. Experts predict up to 40 percent decline in agricultural production by 2030 if disruptions persist. For a nation where approximately 40 percent of the population engages in farming, the consequences could be catastrophic.
Energy Crisis Threat
Hydropower facilities including Tarbela, Mangla, and Neelum-Jhelum depend on consistent river flows. These installations generate roughly 30 percent of Pakistan's electricity.
Diminished water flow would significantly reduce generation capacity, forcing Pakistan toward greater dependence on imported fuel and thermal power plants. This not only increases costs but also heightens the risk of nationwide power outages, disrupting industry, agriculture, and households. An energy crisis would exacerbate inflation and deepen Pakistan's economic challenges.
Water Scarcity Concerns
Major cities including Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad depend on the Indus system for water supply. Any sudden reduction or diversion could create drinking water shortages, sanitation issues, and potentially civil unrest.
Rural communities might respond by increasing groundwater extraction, further depleting aquifers and worsening soil salinity. Water disputes between provinces, particularly Punjab and Sindh, could intensify.
Economic Implications
Pakistan's economy heavily depends on water resources. Agriculture alone contributes over 24 percent of GDP and employs a substantial portion of the population. Water supply disruptions could result in annual GDP losses of 1.5-2 percent. Export revenues from crops and textiles would decline while inflation increases. Government expenditure on subsidies and emergency relief would likely rise, worsening the fiscal deficit.
Ecological Consequences
The Indus Delta ecosystem, already threatened by reduced sediment flow and saltwater intrusion, could deteriorate further. This would negatively impact fisheries, biodiversity, and coastal communities. The treaty suspension could also increase vulnerability to floods and droughts.