US Peace Plan Proposes Ukraine Cede Territory Equivalent to Luxembourg's Size to Russia

The proposed US peace plan for Ukraine includes recognizing Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, as "de facto" Russian territory.

According to an AFP analysis using Institute for the Study of War (ISW) data, the US peace initiative for Ukraine could result in Russia gaining approximately 2,300 square kilometers of territory—an area comparable to Luxembourg (2,590 sq km)—without any military engagement.

The plan, which AFP has reviewed, requires Ukraine to withdraw its military from territories currently under its control, representing a significant territorial concession to Moscow.

Ukraine would surrender nearly 5,000 square kilometers in the Donetsk Oblast that would be converted into a buffer zone, as well as a 45 square kilometer area in the Lugansk Oblast. These concessions include strategically important cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In return, Russia would relinquish territories it claims or partially controls: nearly 2,000 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast, 450 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 300 square kilometers in Sumy Oblast, and 20 square kilometers in Chernigiv Oblast.

The proposal also involves acknowledging Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk as "de facto" Russian territories, while also ceding to Moscow vast areas currently under Russian control in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

In essence, Washington's proposal would have Ukraine cede 20 percent of its territory while recovering less than 0.5 percent.

These calculations are based on areas fully or partially controlled by Russia or claimed by Moscow as of November 20, according to data compiled by the ISW in collaboration with the Critical Threats Project (CTP).

The Russian military has gained 398 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since early November, advancing at a faster rate than in September and October.

As of November 20, the Russian army fully or partially controlled 19.3 percent of Ukrainian territory. Approximately 7 percent, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas, was already under Russian control before the February 2022 invasion began.