Sudan's Humanitarian Catastrophe: RSF Capture of El-Fasher Sparks Genocide Fears Amid Mass Atrocities

Around 177,000 civilians remain trapped in El-Fasher, according to the UN.

Sudan:

Fears intensified across Sudan on Tuesday, three days following the paramilitaries' seizure of the strategic city of El-Fasher, amid mounting reports of mass atrocities and the killing of five Red Crescent volunteers in Kordofan.

The fall of El-Fasher, Darfur's historic center, has ignited widespread concerns of potential mass killings reminiscent of the region's most violent historical period.

Following an 18-month siege characterized by starvation and relentless bombardment, the city now lies under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - descendants of the Janjaweed militias accused of genocide two decades earlier.

The paramilitary organization, engaged in a devastating conflict with the army since April 2023, recently launched a decisive assault on the city, capturing the army's final positions.

In neighboring North Kordofan, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent reported that five Sudanese Red Crescent volunteers were killed in Bara on Monday, with three others missing after the RSF took control of the town on Saturday.

Analysts suggest Sudan has effectively been partitioned along an east-west axis, with the RSF operating a parallel government throughout Darfur while the army maintains control along the Nile and Red Sea in the northern, eastern, and central regions.

For many observers, El-Fasher's capture resurrects memories of the 2000s, when the Janjaweed destroyed villages and killed hundreds of thousands in what is considered one of the worst genocides of the 21st century.

However, the current atrocities are being publicly documented.

The army-aligned foreign ministry stated that these crimes were "shamelessly documented by the perpetrators themselves".

'Rwanda-Level'

Since the city fell on Sunday, RSF fighters have shared videos reportedly showing executions and civilian abuse.

An RSF-led coalition announced Tuesday its intention to form a committee to verify the authenticity of videos and allegations, adding that many videos are "fabricated" by the army.

The United Nations warned of "ethnically motivated violations and atrocities" while the African Union condemned "escalating violence" and "alleged war crimes".

Pro-democracy groups described "the worst violence and ethnic cleansing" since Sunday as the army-allied Joint Forces accused the RSF of killing over 2,000 civilians.

The UN reported that more than 26,000 fled El-Fasher in just two days, most traveling on foot toward Tawila, 70 kilometres west.

"We're watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside," said Nathaniel Raymond, a US war investigator and executive director of Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL).

During the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, an estimated 800,000 people, primarily ethnic Tutsis, were killed in one of the 20th century's worst atrocities.

"The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I've seen," Raymond, who has documented war crimes worldwide over the past 25 years, told AFP.

According to the UN's migration agency, approximately 177,000 civilians remain trapped in El-Fasher after the RSF constructed a 35-mile (56 kilometre) earthen berm blocking food, medicine, and escape routes.

Once the seat of the Darfur Sultanate, a centuries-old African kingdom that flourished long before Khartoum existed, El-Fasher's streets are now littered with charred vehicles and bodies, with smoke rising over devastated neighborhoods.

One clip on Monday appeared to show corpses beside burnt-out cars. Another showed an RSF gunman firing into a crowd of civilians - identified by AFP as a notorious fighter known from execution videos on his TikTok account, where he boasts of killings in newly captured areas.

A New Power Map

Pro-democracy activists also accused the RSF of executing all wounded people receiving treatment at the Saudi Hospital in El-Fasher.

Satellite analysis by Yale's HRL revealed door-to-door killings, mass graves, red patches, and bodies visible on the city's berm, consistent with eyewitness accounts.

"We think those red patches are blood pools from bodies bleeding out," said Raymond, describing imagery showing "objects consistent with human bodies" and trenches filled with corpses.

To many Sudanese, these tactics are disturbingly familiar.

Yale University's Raymond noted that the RSF has become deadlier and more militarily equipped over time.

"These people have an air force... no one can hide because they can see them from the air," he explained.

Raymond further warned that the current violence would not be confined to El-Fasher but would extend to other non-Arab communities.

The Zaghawa, the dominant group in El-Fasher, have long perceived the RSF's advance as an existential threat.

In 2023, the RSF was accused of massacres in West Darfur's capital, El-Geneina, killing up to 15,000 people from the Masalit - another non-Arab group.

"The prospects for peace are very minimal," said Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair.

"Neither the army nor the RSF, for strategic or battlefield reasons, is willing to commit to a ceasefire or genuine peace talks," she told AFP.

The war has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis. Both sides stand accused of widespread atrocities.