Bill Gates Argues Climate Crisis Won't End Humanity, Urges Focus on Poverty and Health at COP30

Gates emphasized the need for a "strategic pivot" in the climate community at COP30 and beyond.

United States:

Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has stated in a comprehensive memo that climate change "will not lead to humanity's demise," arguing that addressing global disease and poverty is crucial to help the world's poorest populations adapt to a warming planet.

This message represents a shift for the 70-year-old Microsoft co-founder, who has been a significant supporter of green technologies through his Breakthrough Energy organization. The memo comes shortly before the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, whose leadership Gates commended for prioritizing climate adaptation and human development.

Gates acknowledged potential criticisms of hypocrisy due to his substantial carbon footprint or claims that his memo was a "sneaky way of arguing that we shouldn't take climate change seriously." However, he maintained that while climate change will have "serious" consequences, "people will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future."

In his memo, Gates outlined "Three tough truths about climate": climate change will not end civilization, limiting temperature is not the most effective measure of progress, and health and prosperity serve as the strongest defenses against climate destabilization.

He highlighted significant progress in reducing emissions to date and expressed optimism that future technological innovations would facilitate further improvements.

Despite the planet being dangerously off track in meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Gates suggested that rather than fixating on precise temperature figures, the world should focus on strengthening its resilience.

He emphasized that for most of the world's poor, poverty and disease remain more immediate concerns.

"Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world's poorest countries," he stated.

This approach means less emphasis on limiting extremely hot and cold days, and greater focus on ensuring "fewer people live in poverty and poor health so that extreme weather isn't such a threat to them."

Looking forward, Gates indicated that a key climate strategy should be reducing the "green premium" – the cost difference between clean and polluting methods – to zero for materials like cement, steel, and jet fuel.

He compared this memo to one he wrote at Microsoft 30 years ago, urging the company to center everything around the internet.

Similarly, he believes the climate community needs a "strategic pivot" at COP30 and beyond.

"Prioritise the things that have the greatest impact on human welfare," he advised.

Critics argued that Gates' essay lacked substance and presented a false dichotomy between climate action and reducing human suffering.

"Mr Gates has set up a false frame that pits improving lives against science-based temperature and emissions goals. In fact, the two are intrinsically connected," Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists told AFP.

"The warming climate is directly undermining poverty eradication and human development goals around the world.

"Hurricane Melissa, a climate change-fueled monster storm, is just the latest example of the deadly and costly consequences of climate change for nations already struggling with complex humanitarian challenges."

She added that transitioning away from fossil fuels would bring health and economic benefits while disrupting the "malign influence" of Big Oil on the planet's future.