The Global Fossil Fuel Paradox: Why Nations Struggle to Transition Despite Climate Commitments

Three decades into climate negotiations, the gap between promises and practice remains wide. (File)

Fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy systems despite renewable alternatives becoming more affordable and environmentally beneficial. This contradiction becomes clearer when examining how major emitters like the United States, China, and European nations balance growing electricity demands with climate commitments.

The United States has openly embraced fossil fuel expansion. With abundant reserves and a politically influential oil and gas sector, the current administration under President Trump has actively promoted drilling and coal production since taking office in January 2025.

Reviving slogans like "drill, baby, drill" and introducing "mine, baby, mine," the administration unveiled plans to open 13 million acres of federal land for coal mining while allocating $625 million to enhance coal's competitiveness. These initiatives include reducing royalty rates for mining companies and extending coal-fired plant operations.

This fossil fuel commitment comes with significant health consequences, as coal pollution correlates with respiratory diseases, heart conditions, and thousands of premature deaths annually between 1999 and 2020 in America.

Simultaneously, the administration is reducing renewable energy tax credits and withdrawing support for energy research. According to data from the Climate Policy Lab at The Fletcher School of Tufts University, the proposed 2026 budget would decrease energy research funding to $2.9 billion—approximately half of the 2025 allocation, returning to levels not seen since the mid-1980s or early 2000s.

While America retreats from clean energy investments, China continues expanding its renewable technology capabilities. Through substantial government subsidies and manufacturing capacity, China has become the dominant producer of solar panels and a key supplier of wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Chinese-manufactured renewable technologies have enabled emerging economies like Brazil and South Africa to decrease fossil fuel dependency. Brazil now ranks among the top five global solar electricity generators, producing 75 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, surpassing Germany's 71 TWh.

The International Energy Agency projects global renewable capacity will double by 2030, despite expected declines in U.S. renewable growth.

However, China presents a paradox—while advancing clean energy globally, its domestic coal production and emissions continue rising. In early 2025, China added 21 gigawatts of new coal power capacity, with projections exceeding 80 GW for the year—the largest increase in a decade. Though China has pledged to reduce coal usage between 2026 and 2030, growing energy demands may complicate this commitment.

The European Union faces its own challenges in reducing fossil fuel dependence, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered an energy crisis as nations sought alternatives to Russian supplies.

In June 2025, the European Commission proposed regulations to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027's end, enhancing energy security through the REPowerEU plan. This initiative focuses on expanding clean energy production, improving efficiency, and diversifying energy sources.

While renewables now lead Europe's electricity generation, natural gas and oil still comprise over half of the EU's total energy supply. Internal disagreements complicate the transition, with Slovakia and Hungary expressing resistance to Russian supply cutoffs. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán warned that ending Russian imports would create economic "disaster" and immediately reduce Hungary's output by 4%.

Interestingly, Europe appears to benefit from America's clean energy retreat—renewable investment reached record levels in early 2025, increasing in the EU while declining in the U.S., according to BloombergNEF.

In November 2025, the UN climate conference (COP30) will convene in Brazil's Amazon region, marking three decades of climate negotiations and ten years since the Paris Agreement. The location symbolizes both environmental urgency and policy contradictions—Brazil promotes climate leadership while expanding oil and gas production and exploring Amazon River basin reserves.

After thirty years of global climate discussions, the gap between commitments and implementation remains stark. The world remains off-track for meeting Paris temperature goals, largely due to continued fossil fuel dependence.

While negotiators will address methane emissions and fossil fuel transition strategies, developing concrete global phaseout plans remains uncertain. Without credible implementation strategies, climate talks risk becoming another arena for geopolitical tensions rather than meaningful action.