Trump Claims India Will Stop Russian Oil Purchases: Analysis of Global Energy Trade Facts

New Delhi and Beijing currently stand as the two leading purchasers of Russian seaborne crude exports.

Washington:

United States President Donald Trump has recently asserted that India has given him assurances regarding curtailing its Russian seaborne crude imports, following Washington's imposition of 25 percent punitive tariffs on New Delhi over these purchases. The American leader additionally mentioned his intentions to convince China to adopt similar measures as the United States intensifies its efforts to cut off Moscow's energy revenue streams.

Currently, New Delhi and Beijing maintain positions as the two principal buyers of Russian seaborne crude exports.

"He (Prime Minister Narendra Modi) has assured me there will be no oil purchased from Russia... You know, you can't do it immediately. It's a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon," Trump stated in remarks to reporters.

He further claimed that India's cessation of Russian oil purchases would "make it much easier" for him to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. "...They will go back to Russia after the war is over," Trump added.

India's Response

The Indian government has not immediately confirmed or denied Trump's statements. To date, despite Trump's punitive tariffs, New Delhi has consistently defended its oil purchases from Russia—a longstanding partner of India—despite Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Delhi has maintained that Russian oil imports are necessary to maintain affordable energy prices and stabilize its domestic market, characterizing the US tariffs as "unjustified".

The Trump administration has implemented an additional 25 percent tariff on India as a sanction for its Russian oil purchases, bringing the total US levies imposed on India to 50 percent, among the highest globally. India stands as the only major economy targeted by what Trump describes as "secondary tariffs," even though China also represents a major consumer of Russian crude.

What Data On Oil Export Shows

Contrary to Trump's claim, Moscow appears to remain New Delhi's primary oil source. According to data compiled by commodities and shipping markets tracker Kpler, in September alone, New Delhi accounted for 34 percent of inbound shipments despite experiencing a 10 percent reduction in imports during the first eight months of 2025.

The agency's most recent data estimates New Delhi's crude imports in September at more than 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd). This represents 70,000 barrels more than August imports but a slight decrease compared to the same period last year, according to the data.

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India maintained its position as the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in September, purchasing oil valued at Rs 25,597 crore.

Data indicates, however, that India's state-owned refiners reduced Russian oil imports by over 45 percent between June and September. Nevertheless, this reduction doesn't necessarily appear to have impacted overall crude shipments to the country, as the decrease seems driven by market dynamics rather than US tariff threats or European criticism of India's trade amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The October oil trade between India and Russia largely remained consistent with expectations at 1.6 million barrels per day.