Trump's Gaza Peace Plan: Navigating Netanyahu's Support Amid Political Challenges

Trump has a mixed record when it comes to applying political pressure on Netanyahu.

Washington:

US President Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed peacemaker with Nobel Prize ambitions, finally secured a visible diplomatic triumph as global leaders gathered in Egypt for the signing ceremony of the ceasefire and hostage-release agreement he negotiated between Israel and Hamas.

However, analysts and diplomats suggest that for lasting peace to emerge, Trump must continue exerting pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose cooperation will be essential in the next phases of his plan.

Multiple US presidents from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden have found Netanyahu challenging to work with, and even Trump administration officials have expressed frustration with certain Israeli military actions they believe undermine American policy objectives.

Nevertheless, Trump successfully persuaded Netanyahu to accept his framework for a broader peace agreement while convincing other Middle Eastern nations to pressure Hamas into returning all Israeli hostages, their primary leverage in the conflict.

The road ahead may prove more difficult. Israel and Hamas remain deeply divided on numerous aspects of Trump's 20-point proposal, and with Israeli elections approaching next year, Netanyahu's stance might shift as he works to maintain his right-wing coalition.

"We're entering a political year where everything is related to campaigns, and Netanyahu's calculations may flip from caving to pressure to trying to ensure his political survival," said Nimrod Goren, the president of Mitvim, an Israeli foreign policy think tank.

The strength of Trump's peace plan is simultaneously its weakness, according to diplomats and analysts. The document central to the agreement leaves many details undefined, with neither side explicitly agreeing to each specific term. While this ambiguity facilitated initial agreement, it also means the most challenging diplomatic work lies ahead.

Among the potential obstacles in Trump's peace proposal is the requirement for Hamas to disarm and abstain from participating in Gaza's future governance. Though Hamas broadly accepted Trump's plan, their official response omitted these specific conditions, and Hamas leaders have indicated they do envision a role for themselves in post-war Gaza governance.

"There are any number of ways this could go sideways," said Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies and former State Department official.

"It's hard to remember an international agreement that left so much to be worked out later."

The Israeli embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A senior US official suggested Trump gained influence with Netanyahu partly by strongly supporting Israel on other critical matters.

During his first administration, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and acknowledged the disputed Golan Heights as part of the country, fulfilling long-standing Israeli government objectives.

"One thing President Trump's done with Israel ... is that he's not trying to be a middle-of-the-roader," the US official said. "He's basically stood shoulder to shoulder with Israel 100%. But because of that, he's been able to help guide them in the right direction."

A Sterner Trump

Trump has demonstrated inconsistency in applying political pressure on Netanyahu.

When Israel bombed Syria's defense ministry in Damascus despite US efforts to expand ties with the new Syrian government, Trump provided political cover. Similarly, he supported Netanyahu's actions in Gaza for months despite growing humanitarian concerns among European and Arab allies.

Recently, however, a more assertive Trump has emerged. He compelled Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar's leader following a failed bombing operation targeting Hamas negotiators there in September. Ultimately, he convinced Netanyahu to endorse his 20-point proposal despite the Israeli leader's reservations.

Alterman notes that Trump currently wields considerable influence over Netanyahu given the US president's popularity in Israel.

"Trump's greatest leverage is he's much more politically popular in Israel than Netanyahu," Alterman said, "and he can either support Netanyahu's political future or sabotage it."

During his address to the Israeli parliament on Monday, Trump playfully teased the Israeli leader in ways suggesting he felt no obligation to treat Netanyahu with special deference.

"Well, see, now you can be a little bit nicer, Bibi, because you're not at war anymore," Trump remarked to laughter.

However, next year's elections could alter Netanyahu's political calculations unpredictably.

Supporters of right-wing politicians Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich could potentially threaten Netanyahu's governing coalition if sufficiently angered by the decision to cease military operations against Hamas.

Analysts caution that if Hamas delays disarmament, right-wing coalition elements might pressure Netanyahu to resume military activities in Gaza, effectively undermining Trump's agreement.

"We are troubled with the fact that Hamas still, today, declares it will stay in power in Gaza," Simcha Rothman, a member of the Religious Zionism party and Netanyahu's governing coalition, told Reuters on Monday.

"We are not happy with any deal that is not total surrender of Hamas ... We will not accept any partial victory."

Another potential source of contention is a provision in the peace plan acknowledging the possibility of a future Palestinian state, which analysts suggest most Israelis would find difficult to accept following Hamas' cross-border attack of October 7, 2023.

Dan Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, noted that if government and opposition politicians campaign strongly against such a state, it could diminish Arab countries' willingness to pressure Hamas to fulfill its obligations under Trump's agreement.

"That was a very important inclusion to get the support of the Arab states to do their part," Shapiro said.

"If the political discourse is a full-on rejection of a Palestinian state for all time, I think that could color the enthusiasm of the Arab parties to play the parts that they need to play."