Nobel Peace Prize 2024: UN, Human Rights Groups Favored as Trump's Chances Diminish

Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he deserves the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize for resolving "eight conflicts" during his presidency.

Regarding this year's Nobel Peace Prize, one certainty seems evident: US President Donald Trump will not be receiving the award, despite his vocal desire for it. The question remains: who will?

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will end the anticipation when it reveals the winner in Oslo on Friday at 11:00 am (0900 GMT).

The current global situation presents a grim picture: according to Sweden's Uppsala University global conflict database, 2024 has witnessed the highest number of armed conflicts involving at least one state since record-keeping began in 1946.

While Trump has frequently asserted his deserving of the prestigious award for resolving "eight conflicts," experts anticipate he will not be selected by the committee—at least not this year.

"No, it will not be Trump this year," stated Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an international affairs expert, in conversation with AFP.

"But perhaps next year? By then the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis," he suggested.

Many experts consider Trump's "peacemaker" assertions exaggerated and express concern about the implications of his "America First" policies.

"Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against the intentions and what's written in the will of (Alfred) Nobel, notably to promote international cooperation, the fraternity of nations and disarmament," explained Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo.

According to Graeger, Trump's actions contradicting Nobel Peace Prize ideals form an extensive list.

Trump has removed the US from international organizations and multilateral treaties, initiated trade wars against both allies and adversaries, threatened to forcibly take Greenland from Denmark, deployed the National Guard in US cities, and challenged universities' academic freedoms and freedom of expression.

"We take the complete picture into account," clarified Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the five-member committee responsible for awarding the peace prize.

"The whole organisation or the complete personality of that person matters, but what we first and foremost look at is what they have been actually achieving for the sake of peace," he emphasized.

This year features 338 individuals and organizations nominated for the peace prize, with the list remaining confidential for 50 years.

Nomination eligibility extends to tens of thousands, including lawmakers and cabinet members from all countries, former laureates, certain university professors, and Nobel committee members.

In 2024, Japan's atomic bomb survivors' group Nihon Hidankyo received the award for their efforts to ban nuclear weapons.

With no clear frontrunner this year, several names have circulated in Oslo ahead of Friday's announcement.

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms—a volunteer network risking their lives to provide food and assistance to war and famine victims—has been mentioned, along with Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights election watchdog.

The Nobel committee's recent selections have demonstrated "a return to more micro things, somewhat closer to classical ideas of peace," focusing on "human rights, democracy, freedom of the press and women," observed Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs.

"My hunch would probably just perhaps be for a not that controversial candidate this year," he predicted.

The Nobel committee might also reaffirm its commitment to the current world order—currently challenged by Trump—by awarding the prize to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, or a UN body such as its refugee agency UNHCR or Palestinian relief agency UNRWA.

Alternatively, it could recognize international tribunals like the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court, or champion press freedoms under threat by honoring the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.

However, as it has done numerous times before, the committee might surprise everyone with a completely unexpected selection.