Trump's Escalating Conflict with Venezuela: Potential Military Action Against Maduro Regime

The United States has declared an "armed conflict" with drug cartels, according to President Donald Trump's recent letter to Congress, raising questions about potential larger actions against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

This declaration provides legal justification for at least four strikes by US naval warships in international waters, resulting in approximately 21 casualties in recent weeks. However, several lawmakers have expressed doubts about the legality of such military operations.

Reports in US media suggest the existence of a Justice Department memo that potentially authorizes agencies like the CIA to take action against the Maduro government, reminiscent of historical US interventions against Latin American governments deemed unfavorable.

During Congressional testimony, Attorney General Pam Bondi declined to confirm the existence of such a memo, but emphasized, "What I can tell you is Maduro is a narco-terrorist. He is currently under indictment in our country." She noted that her department has placed a $50 million bounty on Maduro's head.

Evan Ellis, a Latin America researcher at the US War College, suggests there's a "50-50 chance" the United States will "use credible intelligence information and bring Maduro to justice" if the current standoff extends into late year, though specifics remain unclear.

Beyond the naval vessels targeting alleged drug traffickers, the US has positioned F-35 war planes in Puerto Rico. The Venezuelan government claims these aircraft have flown over its coastline, and has responded by placing its military on alert and mobilizing civilian militia.

The presence of Marines aboard US ships near Venezuela's coast, combined with these aerial activities, suggests potential escalation, according to Ellis. "President Trump, my general sense is -- his patience has run out," stated Ellis, who served during Trump's first administration.

Despite Maduro's letter to Trump seeking dialogue, the White House has rejected this diplomatic overture.

Frank Mora, who served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Western hemisphere during Obama's first term, considers a US attack on drug trafficking targets within Venezuelan territory possible. "Deploying a naval flotilla to then not do anything, or simply take out some speed boats -- I do not think that is what they had in mind," Mora told AFP.

However, Mora argues the Trump administration lacks clear objectives: "On one hand the president says he wants to dismantle the drug traffic. But at the same time, the hope is that this leads to the collapse of the regime."

As congressional opposition to the deployment increases, time pressure mounts for the Trump administration. While US diplomats and military experts continue discussions, the final decision remains with President Trump, as evidenced by other military actions like the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities.

Ellis notes another possibility: "It's also possible that Trump could finally cut some deal that he's satisfied with and go on to the next thing."