Two Years of Gaza War: Stalemate Continues as Peace Remains Elusive Despite Mounting Costs

The Gaza offensive has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties. (File)

Two years following Hamas' attack that ignited the Gaza Strip war, the militant organization remains weakened yet undefeated, while Israel has struck significant blows against regional enemies but failed to achieve its primary objectives, leaving the conflict's resolution uncertain.

The October 7, 2023 attack, the most deadly ever on Israeli soil, triggered one of the most devastating military campaigns since World War II, causing tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, destroying vast areas of the blockaded territory, and creating famine conditions in certain regions.

The conflict expanded across the Middle East, drawing Israel into combat with Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi rebels, militant groups in Iraq and Syria, and their supporter Iran, which experienced major losses during Israel's 12-day military campaign earlier this year.

Throughout the conflict, Hamas has retained hostages—currently 48, with approximately 20 believed alive according to Israeli intelligence—and maintained influence in the shrinking areas of Gaza that remain intact and populated.

A fresh round of ceasefire negotiations has commenced based on a peace plan advanced by US President Donald Trump. However, two American administrations have thus far failed to end the hostilities while providing crucial support to an increasingly isolated and internally divided Israel.

Israel has inflicted substantial damage on Iran and its allies, establishing itself as the undisputed military power in the Middle East, maintaining control over most of Gaza and parts of Lebanon and Syria.

It demonstrated impressive military and intelligence capabilities through attacks on Hezbollah using exploding pagers and long-range strikes that eliminated senior militants, Iranian generals, and nuclear scientists.

However, these tactical victories have come with enormous costs.

Israel faces greater international isolation than it has in decades, with experts, scholars, and major rights organizations accusing it of genocide—charges it strongly denies. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister, alleging starvation as a warfare method, which they reject. Normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations seems increasingly distant.

The failure to secure the hostages' return, combined with long-standing corruption allegations against Netanyahu and his judicial reform efforts, has left the country deeply divided, with regular mass protests and growing discontent as Israel conducts another major offensive in Gaza.

Hamas has stated that the October 7 attack, which resulted in militants killing approximately 1,200 people and abducting 251, was partially intended to bring the Palestinian cause back to global attention. In this, it succeeded.

As the war has continued, major Western countries have joined the majority of UN members in recognizing a Palestinian state. The International Court of Justice has declared Israel's control over East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza—territories captured in the 1967 Mideast war—an illegal occupation that must end.

Yet on the ground, Israel has further solidified its control over all lands between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea, further diminishing hopes for Palestinian independence.

The Gaza offensive has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and displaced 90% of the population of about 2 million, often multiple times. Israel controls approximately 75% of the territory, with entire cities and towns reduced to rubble. Most Palestinians have lost their homes, children have missed two years of education, and parts of Gaza have experienced famine. Whenever the conflict ends, Gaza's recovery will require years, if not generations.

In the occupied West Bank, Israel has conducted major military operations allegedly targeting militants, displacing tens of thousands. It is rapidly expanding Jewish settlements, including a major project that would divide the territory in half, designed to make creating a viable Palestinian state virtually impossible.

Many Palestinians are furious with Hamas for triggering the death and destruction. Similarly, many Israelis are angry at Netanyahu for failing to reach an agreement to return the hostages after presiding over Israel's greatest security failure.

Yet it would be premature to discount either party.

Beyond the hostages, Hamas maintains a diminished but still effective guerrilla force capable of sporadic attacks—and potential rebuilding if given the opportunity. It could claim a costly victory by exchanging hostages for a complete Israeli withdrawal and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Mere survival might suffice for its remaining leadership.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has maintained power by satisfying his far-right coalition allies' demands to continue the war.

He faces elections next year and could lose, especially if the hostages remain unreturned and Hamas survives. However, his powerful ally in Trump may yet succeed in ending the conflict and bringing captives home. Without a clear leader among Israel's divided opposition, this might enable Netanyahu to secure another narrow victory.

In January, hopes emerged that the war might conclude.

Trump's incoming team had advanced a ceasefire agreement after months of negotiations mediated by President Joe Biden's administration, Egypt, and Qatar. The phased plan was designed to de-escalate the conflict and return remaining hostages.

In March, Israel imposed a total Gaza blockade lasting 2.5 months and ended the truce with a surprise bombardment. It faced no public opposition from Trump, who had previously suggested depopulating Gaza and transforming it into a tourist destination.

Under both Biden and Trump, the US has provided billions in military aid while shielding Israel from international ceasefire demands and defending it against atrocity allegations.

Unwavering US support has allowed Netanyahu to pursue "total victory" over Hamas despite the humanitarian catastrophe. US peace proposals have strongly favored Israel, while Hamas has refused concessions despite devastating losses.

The latest White House peace plan requires Hamas to immediately release all remaining hostages, relinquish power, and disarm. In exchange, Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and withdraw from much of Gaza. The US would guarantee humanitarian aid and eventual reconstruction, abandoning plans to relocate Gaza's population to other countries.

Gaza would operate under international governance without a clear path to reunification with the West Bank in a future Palestinian state.

Hamas has expressed willingness to release hostages and transfer power to other Palestinians but indicates other aspects of the plan require further negotiation. Trump and Netanyahu seek a rapid agreement, and Israel might escalate the war if talks extend too long.

Even if the fighting ceases, Gaza's reconstruction timeline remains uncertain, and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which predates the war by decades, would remain volatile as ever.