Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro Is Going To Prison. Here Is How He Can Get Out
On paper, former President Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to prison until the age of 97.
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Brasilia:
Former President Jair Bolsonaro has received a prison sentence that would keep him incarcerated until he reaches 97 years of age.
However, legal specialists indicate that the former president is unlikely to serve the entirety of his 27-year sentence after Brazil's Supreme Court convicted him of conspiracy to stage a coup following his 2022 electoral defeat.
Brazilian convicts typically serve only about one-sixth of their sentences in full custody before transitioning to day-release programs. More significantly, the far-right leader's supporters have outlined strategies to secure his early release by leveraging influence across all three branches of government.
Potential pathways to freedom for Bolsonaro include legislative amnesty, a presidential pardon after the 2026 election, or efforts to transform the Supreme Court through new appointments and the potential impeachment of current justices.
These political maneuvers in a country where public opinion is nearly evenly divided on Bolsonaro's imprisonment will likely keep his situation at the forefront of political discourse, even while he personally remains sidelined.
Currently, with Bolsonaro already under house arrest for allegedly soliciting pressure on Brazilian courts from U.S. President Donald Trump, his legal team can advocate to maintain his house arrest status instead of transferring him to prison after he has exhausted all appeals.
Simultaneously, Bolsonaro's allies have thrown their support behind an amnesty bill in Congress, building upon efforts to free hundreds of his supporters who invaded and damaged government facilities in January 2023.
"A shortcut to achieving some form of justice ... and bringing peace to Brazil would be through amnesty," stated Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son, in a Reuters interview following his father's conviction last week. "Amnesty would wipe the slate clean."
Nevertheless, the legality of such a measure remains disputed. During Supreme Court proceedings last week, two justices contended that any attempt to pardon individuals convicted of coup plotting would violate the constitution.
Vera Chemim, a constitutional attorney based in Sao Paulo, explained that legislative amnesty or a presidential pardon "could be declared unconstitutional ... under the argument that crimes committed against the democratic rule of law are ineligible for grace or amnesty".
This hasn't deterred Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a prominent Bolsonaro supporter seeking his endorsement for next year's election, from repeatedly promising to pardon the former leader if elected president.
Following Thursday's court ruling, the governor defended Bolsonaro, claiming that the former president and others received unjust and disproportionate sentences.
"History will take care of dismantling the narratives and justice will still prevail," Freitas wrote on social media.
Court In Flux
If Brazil's Supreme Court resists legislative or presidential clemency efforts, the court's composition could undergo substantial changes by the decade's end.
During the next president's term, three of eleven Supreme Court justices will reach retirement age, creating opportunities for new appointees who could shift the court rightward.
A supermajority in the Senate would also enable Bolsonaro's right-wing coalition to accelerate the high court's transformation by impeaching current justices, an action many lawmakers have repeatedly vowed to pursue.
Such a shift might allow the court to reconsider its decision, which would not be without precedent.
In 2021, the Supreme Court's procedural review overturned a corruption conviction that had imprisoned President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for over 500 days, enabling him to run for office and defeat Bolsonaro in 2022.
"The past is uncertain in Brazil, and the future is even more so," remarked Thiago de Aragao, CEO of Washington-based consulting firm Arko International.
Trump may also increase pressure on Brazil to facilitate Bolsonaro's release. In July, Trump imposed heavy sanctions on Brazilian goods and sanctioned the Supreme Court judge overseeing the coup case.
Paulo Abrao, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office, a progressive think tank, warned that Trump might escalate pressure during Brazilian elections next year to secure a more favorable government in Brasilia.
"We're better shielded now thanks to the experience of defending Brazilian democracy in 2022," he stated. "But this time there's a well-coordinated push to undermine Brazil's leadership as an independent player on the global stage."