Nobel Prize 2023: Appetite-Regulating Hormone Research Takes Center Stage in Medicine Award Predictions

Canadian biologist John E Dick is considered a potential Nobel Prize contender.

Research on appetite-regulating hormones appears to be leading the race for the Nobel Prize in Medicine, scheduled to be announced Monday as the first award in this year's Nobel season.

With over one billion people worldwide suffering from obesity, research into the hormone "glucagon-like peptide 1" (GLP-1) is viewed by experts as a strong candidate for the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine this year.

A new generation of medications utilizing GLP-1 agonists—including the popular brands Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro—has provided valuable tools in the global fight against obesity and diabetes.

"Many are predicting that the Nobel Prize in Medicine will be awarded to the researchers behind GLP-1," Lars Brostrom, science editor at Sweden's public broadcaster Sveriges Radio, told AFP.

This could further strengthen the dominance of major US institutions in the Nobel Prizes for sciences, which will be announced this week in Stockholm.

However, even if American researchers prevail, US politics may cast a shadow over the celebrations due to significant budget cuts to science programs implemented by President Donald Trump's administration.

Since January, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has terminated 2,100 research grants totaling approximately $9.5 billion and $2.6 billion in contracts, according to the independent database Grant Watch.

These cuts could fuel discussions about the increasing risk of the United States losing its edge in scientific research.

"During the post-war period, the US replaced Germany as the world's leading scientific nation," Hans Ellegren, secretary general of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which awards Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, and economics, told AFP.

"When they now begin cutting research funding, it threatens the country's position."

When considering GLP-1 research, as with many scientific discoveries, it can be challenging to determine who specifically deserves recognition when numerous scientists worldwide have made significant contributions.

Brostrom mentioned several frequently speculated names, including Danish physician Jens Juul Holst, Harvard medicine professor Joel Habener, Canadian endocrinologist Daniel Drucker, and Yugoslav-born American chemist Svetlana Mojsov.

Although treatments like Ozempic have been introduced relatively recently, and the Nobel Assembly at the Karolinska Institute typically honors discoveries made decades ago, "the timing could be perfect" for GLP-1 recognition "because the discovery itself dates back to the 80s," Brostrom noted.

In the same field, research on ghrelin, a hormone that stimulates appetite, might earn a Nobel Prize for Japanese researchers Kenji Kangawa and Masayasu Kojima, according to David Pendlebury, head of research analysis at Clarivate, which predicts potential Nobel winners based on citation metrics.

Pendlebury suggested this would also form "a nice bookend to a 1994 discovery" by geneticist Jeffrey Friedman, who discovered leptin, another appetite-regulating hormone, and who has previously been highlighted by Clarivate.

"We have a combination of exceptional discoveries—a hormone for appetite, a hormone that suppresses appetite—which may also connect to the significant speculation about a prize for GLP-1," he told AFP.

Clarivate also indicated that the work of German medical professor Andrea Ablasser, American virologist Glen N. Barber, and Chinese-American biochemist Zhijian "James" Chen could be honored "for elucidating the cGAS-STING pathway, a fundamental mechanism of innate immunity."

The firm noted that Canadian biologist John E Dick could also be a contender "for identifying leukemia stem cells and establishing their relevance in therapy failure."

For the Nobel Prize in Physics, announced on Tuesday, experts at Sweden's public radio highlighted research into metamaterials, which has generated buzz for several years.

British physicist John B. Pendry has been frequently mentioned for his "invisibility cloak"—a theoretical method to redirect electromagnetic fields around an object.

The Nobel season continues Wednesday with the chemistry prize, followed by the closely watched literature prize on Thursday and the peace prize on Friday, which Donald Trump has claimed should be awarded to him.

The economics prize concludes the Nobel season on October 13.

Each Nobel Prize includes a diploma, a gold medal, and a check for 11 million Swedish kronor ($1.2 million).