US Government Shutdown Could Extend for Weeks as Political Divide Deepens, Analysts Predict

Trump previously oversaw the longest government shutdown in US history during 2018 and 2019.

Washington:

Analysts suggest that the intense political polarization behind the current US government shutdown is making compromise increasingly difficult, potentially extending this standoff between Democrats and Trump's Republicans into a prolonged crisis.

As federal agencies remain paralyzed for a second week, political strategists familiar with previous impasses told AFP that both the president and his opposition appear prepared for an extended confrontation.

"This shutdown could potentially last for weeks, not merely days," explained Andrew Koneschusky, who previously served as press secretary for Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer, a central figure in the current deadlock.

"Currently, both sides remain firmly entrenched with little discussion of compromise."

The core dispute involves Democrats demanding an extension of health care subsidies set to expire, which would otherwise result in significantly higher costs for millions of low-income Americans.

On Sunday, Trump attributed the blockage to minority Democrats, whose votes are necessary for his funding resolution to pass.

"They're causing it. We're ready to go back," Trump stated to reporters at the White House, appearing resigned to a prolonged shutdown.

Trump further claimed his administration has begun permanently terminating federal workers rather than merely furloughing them, again placing responsibility on his political opponents for "causing the loss of a lot of jobs."

When facing a potential shutdown in March, Democrats conceded first, supporting a six-month Republican resolution to maintain funding despite policy reservations.

However, Schumer faced severe criticism from his party's base for that decision and will likely resist capitulating this time, particularly as he faces potential primary challenges from progressive opponents.

'Maximum Pain'

Currently, Senate Republicans are employing a strategy of repeatedly forcing votes, anticipating their Democratic counterparts will eventually yield.

"I anticipate a temporary agreement between parties emerging by late October," said Jeff Le, a former senior California state official who negotiated with the first Trump administration.

"A shutdown extending beyond two months would seriously disrupt government operations and potentially impact national and homeland security considerations, resulting in both parties sharing blame."

Analysts told AFP that a strategic shift would likely depend on either side perceiving public opinion turning against them.

Current polling shows mixed results, though Republicans generally face more criticism than Democrats overall.

Trump previously presided over the longest shutdown in US history in 2018-2019, when federal agencies ceased operations for five weeks.

In the current situation, the president has been increasing pressure by threatening liberal policy priorities and widespread dismissals of government employees.

The Trump Factor

James Druckman, a politics professor at the University of Rochester, considers Trump's unwillingness to compromise as an indication this standoff could match the 2019 record.

"The Trump administration perceives itself as having an unchecked mandate and therefore typically refuses to compromise," he explained to AFP.

"Democrats have faced criticism for insufficient firmness, and their last compromise yielded no positive outcomes. Therefore, politically, they're inclined to maintain their position."

The 2018-2019 shutdown cost the economy $11 billion short-term, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, with $3 billion permanently lost.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has cautioned that the current shutdown could similarly damage GDP growth.

Michael Ashley Schulman, a California-based financial analyst, suggests economic realities might ultimately force compromise.

"If Wall Street becomes alarmed and Treasury yields increase sharply, even the most ideologically committed will suddenly discover a deep interest in bipartisan solutions," he noted.

Not all experts predict a lengthy resolution timeframe.

Aaron Cutler, who heads congressional oversight and investigations at global law firm Hogan Lovells and previously worked in the House, believes the shutdown will last 12 days maximum.

"Senate Democrats will concede first... While the shutdown continues, congressional hearings will pause and significant agency work will be suspended," he said.

"That benefits many Congressional Democrats, but they don't want to be blamed for it."

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