UK Conservative Party Faces Existential Crisis Under Kemi Badenoch's Leadership

Kemi Badenoch during the 2024 Conservative Party annual conference in Birmingham, UK.

Kemi Badenoch, who entered last year's Conservative Party conference as one of four leadership contenders, now faces a greater challenge as the newly elected leader: fighting the party's growing irrelevance.

Following the devastating electoral defeat where the Conservative Party lost two-thirds of its parliamentary seats, recent polling paints an even bleaker picture. If elections were held today, the once-dominant party would fall to fourth place, trailing behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Nigel Farage's Reform UK.

The task of rebuilding after such a resounding rejection was always going to be formidable for Rishi Sunak's successor. However, widespread doubts about Badenoch's leadership capabilities have her constantly defending against the same factional instincts that saw the party churn through five leaders in a decade.

Shadow cabinet members, speaking anonymously to Bloomberg, speculate that if polling predictions materialize in May's local elections, Badenoch could face replacement shortly thereafter.

The relative lack of immediate challenges to her leadership stems less from loyalty and more from skepticism that a change would meaningfully improve the party's fortunes. Several colleagues expressed doubts that voters would return the Conservatives to power after just one term in opposition.

With the next general election not due until 2029, Reform UK has emerged as a significant threat, successfully capturing the right-wing of British politics despite holding just five parliamentary seats - one being a recent Conservative defection.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has recently framed the next election as a contest between Labour and Reform, a narrative that could further marginalize the Conservative Party if it resonates with voters.

On the conference's opening day, Badenoch - the first woman from an ethnic minority to lead the party of Churchill and Thatcher - urged patience. "The election is not tomorrow," she told the BBC. "Nothing good comes quickly or fast. And it will pay off," she insisted, claiming she has a strategic plan.

Her party has taken a hard stance on migration, now surpassing economic concerns in voter priorities. Badenoch pledged to annually deport 150,000 people "who shouldn't be here," though she declined to specify destinations.

Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride plans to announce £47 billion ($63 billion) in potential budget cuts, with nearly half targeting welfare spending. An additional £7 billion would come from foreign aid reductions, an area already cut from 0.7% to 0.5% of economic output.

The fundamental challenge for the Conservatives is persuading voters they can address problems that persisted throughout their 14 years in government.

Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood criticized the Conservatives for "suddenly discovering a zeal for reform that they did not have when they were in office," highlighting their failure to secure borders. Small boat crossings from France rose from virtually none in 2017 to over 45,000 annually by 2022, while the Rwanda deportation scheme never materialized - an issue Labour also struggles with.

Conservative colleagues fear more high-profile defections to Reform, which has already attracted former cabinet ministers Nadine Dorries and Jake Berry. Badenoch dismissed the insurgent party as a "one-man band."

If Badenoch faced a leadership challenge, former rival Robert Jenrick would be a frontrunner, though colleagues question whether he could effectively compete against Farage, with one describing him as "Farage-lite."

Another rising candidate is Katie Lam, the 33-year-old Goldman Sachs alumnus who, while also right-leaning on immigration, benefits from winning election in 2024 and not being associated with the previous government.

Some party centrists see an opportunity to pivot back toward the middle ground, potentially winning back voters from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the latter having taken 60 Conservative seats in the last election.

"Polls are not elections," Badenoch maintained in her interview, a mantra nervously repeated across the British political spectrum.