Examining the Existential Risk of AI: Expert Perspectives on Whether Advanced Intelligence Threatens Humanity

The renowned "godfather of AI" Geoffrey Hinton has estimated a 10-20% probability that artificial intelligence could lead to human extinction.

Brisbane:

In today's world where artificial intelligence (AI) products are everywhere, particularly generative AI systems built on large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini and numerous others, we're confronted with various competing claims about their impact.

Some say AI will transform our world completely. Others predict AI will achieve remarkable breakthroughs. Skeptics argue that AI is exaggerated and a market collapse is imminent. The most alarming prediction suggests AI will soon exceed human capabilities, with this "superintelligent" AI potentially causing human extinction.

If you found that last statement particularly concerning, you're not alone. Geoffrey Hinton, the computer scientist and Nobel laureate often called the "godfather of AI," has expressed his belief that there's a 10-20% chance that AI could cause human extinction within the next three decades. This is certainly a disturbing possibility – though experts remain divided on whether this could happen and how it might unfold.

To address this question, we consulted five experts, asking: does AI pose an existential risk?

Among the five experts, three responded negatively. Their detailed responses follow.

Aaron J. Snoswell, Senior Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology; Niusha Shafiabady, Associate Professor in Computational Intelligence, Australian Catholic University; Sarah Vivienne Bentley, Research Scientist, Responsible Innovation, Data61, CSIRO; Seyedali Mirjalili, Professor of Artificial Intelligence, Faculty of Business and Hospitality, Torrens University Australia, and Simon Coghlan, Senior Lecturer in Digital Ethics; Deputy Director, Centre for AI and Digital Ethics, The University of Melbourne

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