Japan's Leadership Race: 5 Candidates Vie to Become Next Prime Minister as LDP Faces Political Challenges

Candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is set to elect a new leader this Saturday to succeed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, with the victor facing the crucial task of stabilizing politics and rebuilding public trust in the party to maintain its governing position.

Among the five contenders in Saturday's internal election, three have emerged as leading candidates: a potential first female prime minister for Japan, the son of a former premier, and an experienced moderate politician.

The successful candidate must swiftly tackle inflation concerns if the LDP hopes to regain support following recent electoral defeats that cost the coalition with junior partner Komeito its majority in both parliamentary chambers.

Despite these setbacks, the new party president is expected to become prime minister as the LDP still holds the largest number of seats in the lower house, which determines the premiership, while opposition forces remain fragmented.

An immediate challenge for the incoming leader will be hosting a potential summit with US President Donald Trump, reportedly planned during Trump's visit to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea beginning October 31.

The new LDP leader must secure cooperation from main opposition parties or risk brief tenures in office.

The selection process involves only LDP members—295 parliamentarians and 1 million dues-paying grassroots supporters—representing less than 1% of Japan's eligible voting population.

If no candidate achieves a majority in Saturday's initial vote, a runoff between the top two candidates will follow immediately.

The lower house will subsequently select a new prime minister in a leadership vote expected in mid-October, requiring the new LDP leader to secure support from some opposition lawmakers to assume office.

All five candidates are current or former Cabinet ministers who have expressed willingness to collaborate with more centrist opposition groups.

Polls suggest three front-runners: Sanae Takaichi, who could make history as Japan's first woman prime minister; Shinjiro Koizumi, potentially the youngest premier in over a century; and Yoshimasa Hayashi, a seasoned political all-rounder.

Sanae Takaichi, 64, an admirer of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, embraces historical revisionism and maintains a hawkish stance toward China. Her regular visits to Yasukuni Shrine, viewed as symbolizing militarism, are well-known. Takaichi has promised strict immigration policies, a major campaign issue. Her strong ultra-conservative position could potentially strain Japan's relationships with Asian neighbors.

Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, aims to become Japan's youngest modern-era prime minister. As Ishiba's agriculture minister, he released emergency rice reserves to reduce prices and ensure stable supply, demonstrating his reformist approach. Koizumi prioritizes party reconstruction and promises to address public concerns including inflation, the growing foreign population, and public safety issues.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, currently serves as chief Cabinet secretary under Ishiba. This moderate politician advocates for steady wage growth, economic strength, and robust defense capabilities. He proposes a universal credit system to assist low-income households with essential goods. Known for pragmatism and pro-China leanings, Hayashi has crisis management expertise and previously served as foreign, defense, and education minister.

Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, has held key positions including foreign and trade minister and has built a reputation as a formidable trade negotiator.

Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, the ultra-conservative former economic security minister, champions strong economic growth, defense capabilities, and national unity while advocating stricter regulations on foreign residents.

The incoming LDP leader and prime minister will need support from center-right opposition groups—either the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) or the Democratic Party for the People, or both—with whom the LDP has previously collaborated on budget legislation.

While outcomes remain uncertain, cooperation or coalition expansion could contribute to political stability.

Koizumi has reached out to Ishin, visiting the Osaka Expo in August accompanied by party leader and Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura. Hayashi reportedly dined with a senior Ishin lawmaker recently, while Motegi has publicly expressed willingness to form coalitions with both parties.