Netanyahu's Strategic Gamble: How Trump's Gaza Plan Could Reshape Israeli Politics and Middle East Relations

Tel Aviv:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's endorsement of Donald Trump's Gaza proposal represents a strategic gamble that could potentially restore international alliances while simultaneously strengthening his political position domestically, though it risks confrontation with coalition partners who oppose any suggestion of Palestinian statehood.

By aligning with Trump, Netanyahu has portrayed the plan as a collaborative effort advancing his government's objectives while redirecting international criticism about the conflict toward Hamas, which now faces the choice of accepting the proposal or enduring continued military pressure.

This maneuver might reinforce Netanyahu's domestic support by concluding an increasingly unpopular war and securing the release of remaining hostages held by the Palestinian militant organization, thereby enhancing his electoral prospects for the upcoming vote scheduled within a year.

However, the plan's reference to Palestinian statehood will likely antagonize members of Netanyahu's governing coalition, considered the most right-wing in Israel's history, where ultra-nationalist partners Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich wield significant influence.

Nadav Shtrauchler, who previously advised Netanyahu, described the agreement as a "win-win" for the prime minister, noting it transfers all pressure onto Hamas while reducing international scrutiny of Israel, leaving coalition critics without viable alternatives.

"For him, it's checkmate. It's a very strong move," he stated, suggesting Netanyahu could enter the next election with hostages freed and potential restoration of Israel's diplomatic initiatives with Arab and Muslim nations that were disrupted by the Gaza conflict.

Trump's proposal, quickly endorsed by leaders throughout the Arab and Muslim world, demands little from Israel immediately.

Instead, it places full pressure on Hamas, requiring the release of all remaining hostages and surrender of weapons as preconditions for ending Israel's blockade of Gaza.

Israeli military forces would initially remain in Gaza, withdrawing to border positions only after an international force assumes control. Netanyahu, who has consistently maintained that Israel must retain overall security oversight after the war, indicated Tuesday that military presence would continue in most of Gaza without specifying a timeline.

Smotrich, in a detailed statement on social media Tuesday, criticized Trump's plan, arguing it would exchange "real achievements on the ground for political illusions." His Religious Zionism party holds seven seats in the 120-member Knesset, though recent polling indicates he might struggle to win representation if elections were held soon.

Israel's military campaign in Gaza, initiated following Hamas' October 2023 attack, has experienced declining public support. A survey published Tuesday by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute revealed that 66% of Israelis believe it's time to conclude the war, including 48.5% of those identifying with the political right.

Eran Lerman, former deputy national security adviser, observed that Netanyahu recognizes Hamas' acceptance of Trump's plan could fracture his governing coalition, yet he may hope to present voters with "a very different perspective on what happened over the last two years" than currently possible.

"I'm not sure that this is true, but you know, politicians are easily tempted to believe in things that cohere with their ambitions," noted Lerman, who serves as vice president at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security think tank.

Israel's opposition, comprising right, center and left parties, has similarly advocated for concluding the war and frequently criticizes Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's outsized coalition influence. Many opposition members have excluded joining future coalitions with Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies due to their communities' military service exemptions.

According to a source familiar with the matter, Netanyahu plans to bypass bringing Trump's complete 20-point plan for government approval, instead asking ministers to vote solely on hostage release terms, which include Israel freeing hundreds of Palestinian detainees.

Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas cautioned that Netanyahu would likely extend negotiations on ambiguous issues, such as military withdrawal, aiming both to survive politically and undermine Trump's proposal.

Israel has faced increasing international isolation during the nearly two-year Gaza conflict. Recently, some close allies formally recognized Palestinian statehood despite Israeli objections, while others imposed sanctions on senior government officials and restricted weapons transfers to Israel.

Hamas possesses limited diplomatic leverage. It can accept the terms or attempt negotiation, risking the plan's implementation in areas beyond its control while Trump potentially authorizes Israel to continue operations against the group.

A source briefed on discussions revealed that Netanyahu had attempted to remove references to Palestinian statehood from Trump's plan, a concept the Israeli leader has consistently rejected.

The document avoids providing a clear statehood pathway. Rather, it indicates that as Gaza rebuilds and the Palestinian Authority's reform program is "faithfully carried out," conditions "may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people."

This language will likely provoke many of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition partners, who had publicly warned against any mention of Palestinian statehood before his meeting with Trump.

However, standing alongside Trump, Netanyahu stated the document established foundations for significantly advancing regional peace, signaling both leaders' aspirations to expand Israel's relationships with Muslim nations that currently withhold recognition.

Neve Gordon, an Israeli academic at Queen Mary University of London, suggested Netanyahu likely believes he can secure electoral victory in the next election, scheduled by October 2026, if arrangements to normalize relations with additional Arab and Muslim states are established.

Gordon cautioned, however, that even after accepting Trump's proposal, Netanyahu might subsequently abandon it and attribute blame to Hamas, a strategy the Israeli scholar noted he has employed previously, potentially strengthening his political position.