China's New Climate Roadmap: 7-10% Emissions Cut by 2035 and Massive Renewable Energy Expansion

China has for the first time made specific emission cut pledges, though its goal of reducing planet-warming greenhouse gases just seven to 10 percent by 2035 is seen as far too modest.

Beijing pledged in 2021 to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030.

Analysts suggest that while China's emission reduction targets appear conservative, the nation has historically under-promised and over-delivered on climate commitments, potentially offering a pathway toward more ambitious climate action.

China's significance in global climate efforts cannot be overstated as the world's largest polluter, accounting for nearly 30 percent of global emissions, while simultaneously leading as a clean energy powerhouse dominating markets for solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.

The trajectory China follows will substantially determine whether the world can limit end-of-century warming to 1.5C and avoid the most severe impacts of climate disruption.

Under the Paris Agreement framework, nations must update their "Nationally Determined Contributions" every five years, with many racing to submit before the upcoming COP climate summit in Brazil this November.

In 2021, Beijing committed to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, though without specific near-term numerical targets for emissions reduction.

The current geopolitical landscape heightens the importance of China's commitments, with the United States having withdrawn from the Paris accord under President Trump, who recently described climate change as a "con job," while the European Union struggles to establish new targets.

China's new climate plan includes cutting economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by seven to 10 percent from peak levels, while "striving to do better," though some analysts believe China's emissions may have already peaked or will soon.

To align with the 1.5°C target, experts suggest Beijing would need to reduce emissions by approximately 30 percent within a decade from 2023 levels, compared to the United States which peaked CO2 emissions in 2007 and achieved roughly 14.7 percent reduction a decade later.

Additional commitments include increasing non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30 percent from about 12 percent reported in 2021, and expanding wind and solar capacity to more than six times 2020 levels, reaching 3,600 gigawatts compared to the current capacity of approximately 1,400 gigawatts.

The plan also outlines goals to increase forest cover to over 24 billion cubic meters, make electric vehicles "mainstream" in new sales, expand the national carbon trading scheme to high-emission sectors, and establish a "climate adaptive society."

Climate experts universally consider these targets too modest, though they widely expect China to exceed them given its rapidly expanding clean technology sector.

Andreas Sieber, associate director at advocacy group 350.org, noted that while the new target is "underwhelming," it positions "the world's largest emitter on a path where clean-tech defines economic leadership."

Yao Zhe of Greenpeace East Asia expressed hope that "the actual decarbonization of China's economy is likely to exceed its target on paper."

Although China is installing renewable energy at an unprecedented pace that surpasses global competitors and dominates clean-tech production chains, concerns remain about its continued expansion of coal capacity.

The decision to use an unspecified "peak" rather than establish a baseline year for emissions reductions creates ambiguity, with Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air warning this keeps "the door open to near-term increases in emissions."

Nevertheless, these pledges are widely viewed as "a floor, not a ceiling, for China's ambition," and many observers believe China's economy is now fundamentally committed to energy transition.

As Li Shuo of the Asia Society concluded, "The good news is that in a world increasingly driven by self-interest, China is in a stronger position than most to drive climate action forward."