Why Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Chances Are Slim According to Experts

Oslo:

US President Donald Trump is unlikely to win the Nobel Peace Prize despite his desires, as experts suggest his actions contradict the values championed by the award committee.

His active campaigning for the prize may actually work against him. A committee member revealed to Reuters that they prefer to operate independently, shielded from external influence.

Instead, the five-member committee might recognize a humanitarian organization working in challenging environments, particularly those affected by Trump's cuts to US aid. The announcement will come on October 10.

Potential recipients include the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), UNICEF, the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, or grassroots organizations like Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms.

"He has no chance to get the Peace Prize at all," stated Asle Sveen, a historian of the award, citing Trump's support for Israel in the Gaza conflict and his attempts to improve relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Alfred Nobel's will stipulates that the award should recognize the person "who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations."

According to Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Trump's actions contradict this principle: "He has withdrawn the US from the World Health Organization and from the Paris Accord on climate, he has initiated a trade war on old friends and allies."

"That is not exactly what we think about when we think about a peaceful president or someone who really is interested in promoting peace."

There have been surprising Nobel Peace Prize laureates previously - Barack Obama received it less than eight months into his presidency, and US National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger won during the Vietnam War.

"Sometimes people have received the Peace Prize in spite of a brutal record, an authoritarian record, a background where they've contributed to evil, or at least wrongdoing," explained Henrik Syse, a former member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

"But they had explicitly seen the things that they had contributed to were wrong, and therefore took the steps necessary to correct these wrongs," he added, referencing F.W. de Klerk, South Africa's last apartheid-era leader who shared the 1993 prize with Nelson Mandela.

Graeger suggested that if Trump could pressure Putin to end the Ukraine war or convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the Gaza conflict, he might become a viable candidate.

While many have campaigned for the Nobel Peace Prize, none have done so as intensely as Trump. He has repeatedly used his position as US president to argue for his candidacy, including during his recent address to the UN General Assembly.

However, the Norwegian Nobel Committee's deputy leader suggests such lobbying typically backfires: "These types of influence campaigns have a rather more negative effect than a positive one. Because we talk about it on the committee. Some candidates push for it really hard and we do not like it."

Speaking generally about lobbying, he added: "We are used to work in a locked room without being attempted to be influenced. It is hard enough as it is to reach an agreement among ourselves, without having more people trying to influence us."

Committee leader Joergen Watne Frydnes maintains that external attention doesn't affect their process: "All politicians want to win the Nobel Peace Prize. We hope the ideals underpinned by the Nobel Peace Prize are something that all political leaders should strive for... We notice the attention, both in the United States and around the world, but outside from that, we work just the same way as we always do."

Beyond humanitarian organizations, the committee might recognize UN institutions like the International Court of Justice, or the UN itself as it celebrates its 80th anniversary.

Journalists could also be highlighted, following a year with unprecedented media casualties, particularly in Gaza. The Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders would be potential recipients.

Local mediators negotiating ceasefires and humanitarian access could also be considered, such as peace committees in the Central African Republic, the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding, or the Elders and Mediation Committee in El Fasher, Darfur.

"Any of these would be deserving of the award," concluded Karim Haggag, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.